Global Markets Update Investors’ enthusiasm for EM assets should return Investors’ retreat from emerging markets over the past month has reflected growing concerns about the implications of the collapse in the price of oil. Admittedly, most countries (and the world as a... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What might Poland’s economic challenges mean for property? The growing risk of a deflationary spiral means the Polish Central Bank is likely to reduce interest rates to support demand. But the fall in the zloty against the Swiss franc could nevertheless... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC cuts rates, but monetary conditions to stay tight Today’s 50bp cut in the Turkish one-week repo rate, to 7.75%, doesn’t necessarily mark an easing of monetary conditions. It’s much more important to look at interbank interest rates, and these have... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The implications of ECB QE for Eastern Europe The ECB looks almost certain to launch a programme of quantitative easing this week but, unless it surprises in the scale and breadth of its asset purchases, the impact on the financial markets in... 19th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The implications of ECB QE for Eastern Europe The ECB looks almost certain to launch a programme of quantitative easing this week but, unless it surprises in the scale and breadth of its asset purchases, the impact on the financial markets in... 19th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM central banks shift to easing mode Having been in tightening mode at the end of 2014, a number of EM central banks have surprised markets by loosening monetary policy since the start of the year, with policymakers in Romania, India... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Dec.) December’s Polish CPI data, which confirmed that the economy fell deeper into deflation, add to the evidence supporting a loosening of monetary policy over the coming months. However, the sharp rise... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Oil exporters feel the squeeze The value of EM exports fell in annual terms for the first time in almost a year in November as the slide in oil prices dragged on exports from energy producing EMs. The further slump in oil prices... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How and where we differ from the consensus In general our forecasts for both EM growth and inflation over 2015-16 are below consensus expectations and for the BRIC economies in particular we are notably more downbeat than the rest of the... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rate cuts on the horizon Today’s decision by the National Bank of Poland to keep its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.00% was clearly on a knife edge and, with the economy set to remain in deflation for much of this year... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Drop in oil prices means deflation for most in 2015 The sharp drop in oil prices will push much of Central and South Eastern Europe into deflation over thecoming months and we have revised down our inflation forecasts accordingly. However, for... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack What next for the Chinese renminbi? Since the end of November, the renminbi has depreciated slightly against the US dollar. However, the real effective exchange rate of China’s currency has continued to appreciate sharply, as the... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Pressure building for divided Polish MPC to cut rates The immediate outlook for Polish interest rates has been muddied by the increasingly acrimonious divisions that have opened up within the MPC. On balance it looks more likely that the Council will opt... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Nov.) Weak exports and strong non-oil imports caused Turkey’s current account deficit to widen in November, in spite of the sharp fall in oil prices. All in all, the data provide early signs that Turkey is... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: market tensions ease, but recession looms large The tensions in Russia’s financial markets triggered by last month’s ruble crisis seem to have eased over the past couple of weeks. But the first signs have emerged that the economy is falling into... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: EMs in an era of low oil prices The sharp fall in oil prices will provide a welcome boost to growth in the majority of emerging economies in 2015, but at the cost of slower growth in much of the Middle East and deepening crises in a... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
