Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC shrugs off weak inflation and activity data The press release accompanying today’s decision by the National Bank of Hungary to keep interest rates on hold was surprisingly upbeat. It largely shrugged off the drop in inflation in September... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble crisis points to larger-than-expected rate hikes The continued slide in the ruble over the past few weeks has raised the prospect that Russia is in the grip of a self-fulfilling currency crisis in which the mere anticipation of currency weakness... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: encouraging election doesn’t end political crisis The victory of pro-Western, reformist parties in yesterday’s election was perhaps the best that could have been hoped for. But with the economy in freefall and the conflict in the east of the country... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Renewed weakness in Germany hits Central Europe The past month has brought further evidence of weaker growth in Central Europe. Admittedly, August’s particularly disappointing data appear to have been distorted by variations in summer holidays. And... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US recovery not helping all EMs Although the US economy has emerged as a bright spot of the uneven global recovery, its imports from EM economies have not picked up anywhere near as much as would have been expected based on past... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Low EM inflation set to persist Inflation eased further in September across most of the emerging world, in aggregate reaching its lowest rate in nearly five years. Falling commodity prices and weak underlying price pressures mean... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank quashes hopes for looser policy The accompanying statement to today’s Turkish MPC meeting, at which interest rates were left on hold, is likely to quash hopes that have been growing in some quarters for looser policy in response to... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: slowdown in Q3, but more timely signs of improvement Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in the Polish economy slowed to around 2.5% y/y in Q3 from 3.2% y/y in Q2. But it does at least look like the economy strengthened a touch towards the end of the... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Cheaper commodities to allow rates to stay lower for longer We estimate that the recent fall in commodity prices could knock 1%-pt off Emerging Market (EM) inflation over the coming months. With slower economic growth set to keep a lid on core inflation in... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How vulnerable is non-core logistics property to risk aversion? Compared to previous bouts of risk aversion, the peripheral euro-zone and emerging European economic outlook is better. And, with investors now seeing the sector as a core portfolio component, the... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Two sides to Russia’s investment challenge The recent fall in the oil price has underlined the perils of Russia’s over-reliance on its energy sector and the corresponding need to develop non-energy sources of growth. Part of the route back to... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could rising risk aversion take the steam out of commercial property? The current rise in risk aversion may dent the growth in property investment volumes in H1 2015 as demand for secondary assets wanes. However, with bund yields remaining low, prime property demand and... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus How and why lower oil prices matter for Russia’s economy The fall in oil prices over the past month or so poses another headwind for Russia’s struggling economy. The drop in prices so far is unlikely to have a major bearing on the immediate outlook –... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian activity data flattered by working day effects The pick-up in Russian activity data in September, while encouraging, may owe more to working day effects than to an underlying improvement in growth. The bigger picture is still one of an economy... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update German weakness takes its toll on CEE Of all the reasons to expect softer growth in Central and Eastern Europe, the weakness of the German economy is by far the most compelling. Indeed, we estimate that it accounts for the bulk of the... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The winners and losers from lower oil prices In simple terms, the big winners from the recent drop in oil prices will be those EMs with large energy import bills, while the big losers will be the major oil exporters. But in reality the situation... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
