Emerging Europe Economics Focus 25 years on from the “Fall of the Wall” The fall of the Berlin Wall marked the start of the transition from central planning to market-based economies in Central and Eastern Europe, which in turn paved the way for a sharp rise in prosperity... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish central bank governor shifts emphasis to growth Following the surprise decision to leave interest rates on hold today, when most had expected a 25bp cut, Governor Belka didn’t close the door on further easing. But he did shift the emphasis onto... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Price Inflation (October) Russian inflation accelerated to a three-year high of 8.3% y/y in October and, with the lagged effects of a weaker ruble still to come through, a further rise towards 9% y/y is likely over the coming... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Export-oriented manufacturers faring well October’s PMI data suggest that EM manufacturing growth stabilised last month. Some of the smaller, export-driven EMs, particularly those in Central Europe as well as Mexico, areperforming well. But... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s MPC dovish on inflation outlook Having cut its policy interest rate by 25bp to 2.75% earlier today, the Romanian MPC didn’t give much away about the outlook for monetary policy at the post-meeting press conference. Nonetheless... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs for Central Europe provide further evidence that, having slowed in Q3, the region started Q4 on a stronger note. 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Bubble in US Treasuries should deflate soon If recent history is any guide, Fed tightening is unlikely to derail stock markets to the extent that many fear. Our view is that while US equities will struggle to make further headway, they will... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Russia & Ukraine opt for treaties over tricks The deal between Russia and Ukraine should ensure that gas supplies flow freely to Europe this winter and should also reduce the geopolitical risk premium currently in European gas and coal prices. 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble crisis spurs central bank response Russia’s central bank had to deliver two things at today’s Board meeting in order to stem the slide in the ruble: an aggressive hike in interest rates and an immediate overhaul of the current exchange... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Five challenges for Romania’s next president Victor Ponta looks set to win the presidential election in Romania on Sunday at a time when the economy is being buffeted by renewed weakness in key euro-zone trading partners. The economic outlook... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth sinks further on BRICs weakness Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth slowed to a five-year low of 4.1% y/y in August, due in large part to a further downturn in the BRIC economies. Preliminary data suggest that growth may have... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble crisis pushes central bank towards heavy FX intervention The Russian ruble has rallied by around 3% against the dollar today seemingly as a result of central bank intervention on the foreign exchange market 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The end of QE and what it means for emerging markets Most of the emerging world should take the end of QE3 in its stride. The link between QE and capital flows to EMs has often been exaggerated. And while some EMs look vulnerable as US rates move up, it... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil price slump raises deflation danger The sharp fall in oil prices over the past couple of months will keep inflation across Central and South Eastern Europe extremely weak and could push several economies deeper into deflation... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Wheat prices to remain low despite weather conditions in Russia Amid reports that Russia’s autumn-sown crop is heading into winter in worse condition than five years ago, which preceded a slump in output and saw global wheat prices double, we caution against... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Low valuations should help to support EM equities Equities in emerging markets have fared poorly since the end of September, dragging down the price/12m forward earnings ratio in most regions to below its 5-year average, with the exception of Latin... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
