Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian bonds fall further as debt talks start The start of debt restructuring negotiations in Ukraine has been accompanied by further losses on the country’s foreign currency government bonds. Meanwhile, currencies in Central Europe have weakened... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rates unchanged as government pressure eases The Turkish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold today, rather than cut again, was clearly a response to the latest sell-off in the lira, which has forced President Erdogan to tone... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How worried should we be about the strong dollar? Fears over the outlook for emerging markets have resurfaced over the past few days, with the latest concerns focusing on the impact that a strong dollar will have on EM balance sheets. In our view... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Feb.) & Czech IP & Retail Sales (Jan.) The weaker-than-expected 1.6% y/y drop in Polish consumer prices last month was driven largely by an even steeper fall in petrol prices. Meanwhile, Czech activity data released today show that the... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian Central Bank cuts rates further Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia to cut its benchmark one-week repo rate by 100bps appears to have been driven by the stabilisation of the ruble over the past month. Barring a renewed... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export downturn deepens The value of EM exports fell at the sharpest rate in more than five years in January. The timing of Chinese New Year was partly to blame, and an improvement is almost guaranteed in February, given the... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Fragile EM currencies set for further weakness The fall in emerging market currencies since the beginning of this year has picked up pace this month. Two main forces appear to have been at work. First, the depreciation of the euro has led the... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s debt restructuring: five key questions It looks all but inevitable that Ukraine will need to restructure its public debts, but there’s a huge amount of uncertainty about what the restructuring might look like. To shed some light, in this... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Jan.) Turkey’s current account deficit narrowed substantially in January on the back of a fall in imports. But this wasn’t just due to lower energy imports – non-energy imports fell too. This adds to the... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing the fallout from the EM currency slump Most EM currencies have weakened substantially against the US dollar this year. For a few EMs with large dollar debts, such as Turkey, this could lead to financial strains. And the impact of currency... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Turkish central bank independence matters The Turkish government’s attacks on the central bank (CBRT) have become increasingly aggressive over the past month, raising fears about the independence of monetary policy and triggering a sharp sell... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fragile five whittled down to three The fragile five have been whittled down to three as economic reforms have helped to reduce the vulnerability of the Indian rupee and Indonesian rupiah to the recent bout of emerging market currency... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Jan.) & Czech CPI (Feb.) The 2.2% y/y fall in Turkish industrial production in January was distorted a little by base effects, but even so the data highlight the extent to which the economy is struggling. The consensus view... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Venezuela in crisis, but EM risks generally low Our updated Capital Economic Risk Indicator (CERI) reports that the overall level of emerging market (EM) risk remains at a decade low, but that concerns remain about a handful of countries. Venezuela... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Feb.) Russian inflation continued to accelerate in February, rising to its fastest pace, at 16.7% y/y, in more than a decade. We think inflation is close to peaking, but the big picture is that it’s likely... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing activity steady, but sluggish The latest PMI data suggest that manufacturing growth across the emerging world remained stable, yet sluggish, in the first couple of months of this year. Some of the larger EMs are still struggling... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
