Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Falling commodity prices douse the EM export recovery The recent modest recovery in EM exports stalled in October as global growth lost some momentum and sharp falls in commodity prices added to difficulties facing commodity exporters. More timely data... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3) Today’s weaker-than-expected Turkish Q3 GDP data highlighted that domestic demand remained extremely sluggish and are likely to result in further government pressure on the central bank to lower... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Differentiation key to navigating EM sell off The sharp falls in EM equities over the past day or so have rekindled fears of a crisis across the emerging world. While several EMs do look vulnerable to the effects of low oil prices and a stronger... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How likely is a Ukrainian default? Ukraine’s deepening recession and the slide in the central bank’s FX reserves have raised fresh questions about whether the government will default on its debt. On the economics alone, we think... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor External debt unlikely to spur widespread stress An increase in external debt has raised concerns that the emerging world faces a rough ride over the coming years as the dollar strengthens. However, our updated Capital Economic Risk Indicator (CERI)... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey & Czech Republic Ind. Prod. (Oct.) The modest weakening of Turkish industrial production in October reinforces our view that, while the slowdown in the economy has now bottomed out, it’s likely to be a sluggish recovery from here on... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will Fed hikes trigger another leg down for EM currencies? The US Fed is set to begin raising interest rates in the first half of next year, casting renewed uncertainty over the outlook for EM currencies. But big and necessary adjustments in many currencies... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Price Inflation (November) Russian inflation accelerated sharply to 9.1% y/y in November and, with the ruble falling further over the past few weeks, it is on course to continue rising over the coming months. We think that... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How the fall in oil prices will benefit Turkey Comments from Turkey’s Finance Minister, Mehmet Simsek, that the sharp fall in oil prices will remove the economy’s status as one of the most fragile in the emerging world have some basis. The current... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The end of an era for globalisation and what it means for EM trade The period of sluggish EM export growth over the past few years is only partly linked to the weak state of global demand. Another key factor is that the wave of globalisation over the previous decade... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Smaller EM manufacturers leading the way The latest PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world has improved in recent months, supported by a pick-up in some of the smaller EM economies. That being said, EM... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Turkish lira to remain overvalued despite fall in oil prices The latest estimates by the Peterson Institute for International Economics in October suggested that the Turkish lira remains one of the most “fundamentally” overvalued emerging market currencies that... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s 2015 budget assumptions already look out of date The government budget for 2015, that was signed by President Putin today, is based on a range of outdated assumptions. Based on current spending plans, we reckon the government is likely to run a... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC swayed by improving growth outlook The accompanying statement to today’s Polish MPC meeting, at which interest rates were left unchanged, struck a dovish note. But it also stressed that the strength of the economy had eased... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (November) The rise in Turkish inflation to 9.2% y/y in November, which came in spite of the sharp drop in oil prices, underlines the strength of underlying price pressures in the economy. Given this, it’s... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to make of the ruble’s latest tumble The sharp fall in the ruble over the past few days points to another large increase in interest rates when the central bank’s board meets next week. But the fact that the authorities have so far... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
