Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Soft CPI data point to faster rate cuts in parts of CEE

The softer-than-expected December inflation data released across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week suggest that further interest rate cuts will be delivered across the region over the coming...

12th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.)

The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate unchanged at 7.00% today and, although a monetary easing cycle seems to be drawing nearer, we think that interest rates are unlikely to be cut...

12th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

NBP has limited scope for rate cuts in 2024

Communications from the governor of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) today suggest to us that policymakers could cut interest rates again at the central bank’s March meeting. But we think core...

10th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.)

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold again today, at 5.75%, and we continue to think that the scope for monetary loosening ahead is relatively limited. While the consensus...

9th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.)

The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally continued to rise in December and point to regional activity strengthening at the end of 2023...

8th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Bank of Israel cuts rates, Turkey’s rebalancing in focus

Israel's central bank started its monetary easing cycle this week with a 25bp interest rate cut - a move that came a bit sooner than we'd expected. But inflation risks are greater than most anticipate...

5th January 2024 · 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.)

The rise in Turkish inflation to 64.8% y/y in December was broadly in line with expectations and the breakdown provided some signs that underlying price pressures continue to soften. We think the...

3rd January 2024 · 2 mins read

Event

EM Drop-In: Is Turkey’s policy shift the real deal?

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The Erdogan government’s turn back to macroeconomic orthodoxy is showing early positive signs: inflation pressures have eased; the current account deficit has narrowed; and foreign investment has p

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

EU’s new fiscal rules, CNB joins the rate cutting club

EU finance ministers agreed on a new set of fiscal rules this week, but this doesn’t change our view that concerns about public debt dynamics will grow in parts of Central and Eastern Europe over the...

22nd December 2023 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

The Czech National Bank (CNB) maintained a hawkish tone as it started its easing cycle today, but we still think that interest rates will be lowered by a further 300bp next year (from 6.75% to 3.75%)...

21st December 2023 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered a 250bp interest rate hike, to 42.50%, at today’s meeting and didn’t close the door on the tightening cycle. We’ve now pencilled in one more 250bp hike at the...

21st December 2023 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Activity Data (Nov.)

Poland’s activity data for November suggest that the economic recovery stalled last month, but we think that this is only a temporary blip. We still expect GDP growth to strengthen from around 0.5% in...

21st December 2023 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Warsaw retail revival to stall after 2024

In Warsaw, more favourable economic conditions will support retail spending and prime rents in the short term. But from 2025, faster rises in online shopping than elsewhere in Europe will cause the...

20th December 2023 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

Financial risks easing, but still areas for concern

The more supportive global risk environment is helping to ease some financial strains across the EM world, but there are still pockets of vulnerability heading into 2024. Balance of payments positions...

19th December 2023 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

The Hungarian central bank (MNB) cut its base rate by 75bp again today (to 10.75%), and we think it will probably continue to lower rates at this pace over its next few meetings. However, we expect...

19th December 2023 · 2 mins read