Europe Commercial Property Update Hungarian retail rents unlikely to take-off A combination of spare capacity and the ban on Sunday trading will limit retailer demand in Hungary in the next year or two. Thereafter, new shopping centre developments will prevent rental growth... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs can weather Fed lift-off – problems could come later With a Fed rate hike sometime this year now widely anticipated, we suspect that any volatility in EM markets when the Fed finally raises rates should prove short-lived. The much bigger risk for... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s easing cycle nearing an end The press release accompanying today’s decision by the National Bank of Hungary to lower its policy interest rate by 15bp to 1.50% hinted that the easing cycle has a little further to run. We have... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey keeps rates on hold, but hikes looking increasingly likely The Turkish central bank kept its key interest rates on hold today, but the accompanying statement suggested that the MPC remains too sanguine on the inflation outlook and the risks posed by the large... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment & Ind. Prod. (May) May’s activity data brought further bad news for the Russian economy, with the slump in industry and fixed investment deepening. All in all, our GDP Tracker suggests that output may have contracted by... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production, Retail Sales & Construction (May) Polish activity data for May were a mixed bag, with strengthening consumer spending broadly offsetting weakness in industry. Overall, it looks like GDP may have grown by around 3.5% y/y, roughly in... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Weak EM exports keep concerns over global demand alive Most of the weakness in emerging market exports in recent months can be pinned on the impact of lower commodity prices and the strength of the US dollar. But there are lingering concerns surrounding... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed tightening and EMs: risks revisited Yesterday’s statement by US Fed officials suggests that the FOMC is still on course to raise interest rates at September’s meeting. EM financial markets have taken this in their stride today and... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why there is no free lunch for Russia’s government There appears to be a great deal of confusion about how Russia can use its oil funds to finance its budget deficit, with some arguing that by drawing them down in rubles the government can both... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (May) The sharper-than-expected fall in Polish consumer prices last month reinforces our view that the central bank will be under little pressure to raise interest rates any time soon. The market, which is... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC hints at smaller rate cuts ahead The Russian central bank cut its one-week repo rate by 100bp, to 11.5%, at today’s MPC meeting, but struck a more cautious note on the near-term outlook for inflation. As a result, while we expect... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting the “Grexit” threat to Eastern Europe The clock is ticking for Greece to unlock much-needed funding and stay in the euro-zone. And if it fails and were to leave the single currency, the impact of this wouldn’t be felt in Greece alone. In... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Apr.) Even though Turkey’s current account deficit narrowed in April, the bigger picture is that it remains large. And the composition of external financing is a key vulnerability, with foreign direct... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack What next for EM dollar-denominated sovereign bonds? Emerging market dollar-denominated government bonds have significantly underperformed their local currency counterparts since the end of April. However, this has generally been due to a surge in... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1) We wouldn’t get carried away by the better-than-expected 2.3% y/y rise in Turkish GDP in Q1. This stronger outturn was caused by a sharp pick-up in consumer spending, which came at the cost of a lower... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rate hikes back on table amid post-election uncertainty The Turkish lira has stabilised today, but it remains vulnerable to further weakness. Faced with another leg down, we think the central bank might in the first instance lower the FX depo rate or scale... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
