Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.) The declines in March’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) in Central and South Eastern Europe were disappointing, but the surveys still point to strong growth in the region. Looking at the... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Shifting sands: why the outlook for the BRICs is starting to diverge The prospects for the four largest emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India and China – are starting to diverge. The outlook for India is improving and, despite a recent run of poor data, we think... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Bucharest industrial capital values set for strong growth A more balanced economy and improvements in public institutions have reduced the risk of investing in Romania. And, given that industrial yields remain close to 10% despite strong levels of activity... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC keeps policy unchanged, but hints at loosening Having kept its two-week repo rate unchanged at 0.05% and maintained its exchange rate ceiling of 27/€ earlier today, the Czech MPC’s accompanying statement struck a markedly dovish note. As a result... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe shaping up well at the start of 2015 Despite concerns about deflation, a recession in Russia and sluggishness in the euro-zone, the latest data out of Central Europe have been surprisingly robust. Industrial production growth has... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth stuck at post-crisis low Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM GDP growth has remained stuck at just over 4.0% y/y in recent months – a low not seen since the aftermath of the global financial crisis. However, the aggregate figure... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: a few more small rate cuts on the cards Having resumed its easing cycle earlier today, the Hungarian MPC made it clear that a few more small rate cuts are likely over the coming months. For now, we have pencilled in 30bp of rate cuts, which... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish easing cycle at an end, policy to stay extremely loose The Polish MPC was uncharacteristically forthright in its statement that today’s 50bp cut in the policyinterest rate, to 1.5%, marked the end of the easing cycle. But it’s clear that weak price... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Feb. 15) World Steel Association (WSA) data for February show a 4.6% m/m fall in global steel output, led by Asian producers. However, data for the first two months of the year suggest it is too soon to factor... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Currency weakness concentrated in low-saving EMs The hardest hit EM currencies over the course of this year have been those of the economies with low domestic savings rates. In the absence of reforms to address this frailty, the currencies of low... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A looming fall in gas exports adds to concerns in Russia Because Russia’s export gas price seems to follow oil prices with a six to nine month lag, the recent fall in oil prices has not yet fully fed into Russia’s gas export earnings. Admittedly, gas... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment & Ind. Prod. (Feb.) Working day effects exacerbated the weakness in February’s activity data from Russia but don’t change the bigger picture of an economy sliding deeper into recession. Consumers are still bearing the... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Post-FOMC relief proves short-lived The rally in EM currencies following the conclusion of yesterday’s FOMC meeting has proved to be short-lived, with markets seemingly focussing on the fact that the Fed has paved the way for a June... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Feb.) Poland’s industrial production and retail sales data for February suggest that the economy grew by a solid 3% y/y or so last month. As a result, even though the economy fell further into deflation... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian bonds fall further as debt talks start The start of debt restructuring negotiations in Ukraine has been accompanied by further losses on the country’s foreign currency government bonds. Meanwhile, currencies in Central Europe have weakened... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rates unchanged as government pressure eases The Turkish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold today, rather than cut again, was clearly a response to the latest sell-off in the lira, which has forced President Erdogan to tone... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
