Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC shrugs off concerns about deflation and strong zloty Having left the policy interest rate unchanged at 1.5% earlier today, the Polish National Bank’s governor, Marek Belka , dismissed suggestions that the strengthening zloty and March’s weaker-than... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Window for policy loosening starting to close The wave of EM policy loosening that was triggered by the drop in oil prices at the end of last year is now reaching an end. However, it won't be until 2016 that most central banks move into... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Brightening outlook for Central European consumer markets Following a torrid few years after the global financial crisis, Central European consumer spending has started to recover gradually over the last eighteen months and there are reasons to expect this... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s Sunday trading ban symbolic of reform backsliding The decision taken by the Hungarian government to ban Sunday trading is unlikely to have a major impact on the economy at an aggregate level. But as we explain in this Watch, it may lead to a shift in... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Mar.) The small rise in Czech inflation last month, to 0.2% y/y, slightly reduces the probability that the National Bank will ease monetary conditions further at next month’s MPC meeting. Nonetheless, with... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A primer on EM dollar debts The recent strength of the dollar has thrust EM dollar debts into the spotlight, but data on the subject tend to be misunderstood. In this Update, we answer three questions that we have been asked by... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s 2015 budget: a fiscal squeeze is looming The assumptions underpinning Russia’s 2015 budget, currently working its way through parliament, look realistic, suggesting that the government is finally starting to wake up to the extent of the... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Three scenarios for Turkey after the election Turkish financial markets are becoming increasingly worried about what lies in store after June’s parliamentary election, with fears focusing on the risk of rising authoritarianism under President... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Will Russia’s sovereign credit spread keep falling? Russia’s bond market continued to fare well in March. This may have reflected a growing sense that the risk of a financial crisis in the country has passed in the wake of emergency rate hikes late... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMIs point to further weakness The latest PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world slowed further last month, driven mainly by weakness in some of the larger EM economies. By contrast, manufacturers in... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s recession spreading unevenly across the economy The slump in Russia’s economy has been spreading unevenly across various sectors with consumers bearing the brunt of the economy’s problems. By contrast, the hit to the manufacturing sector has so far... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook In the footsteps of the Fed? The recent run of poor data from around the emerging world is likely to set the tone for the rest of this year. Brazil’s struggles look set to continue, Russia is likely to slip deeper into recession... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will stronger industrial output drive CE industrial rental growth? A combination of strengthening industrial output and further growth in the logistics sector will underpin industrial rental levels in Central Europe this year and allow them to pick up from 2016. 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) March’s manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Europe were something of a mixed bag, with the figures providing further evidence that the Turkish and Russian economies weakened, although in the latter... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4) The Turkish economy grew by a stronger-than-expected 2.6% y/y in Q4, driven by an uptick in consumer spending. But more timely activity data suggest that this improvement was short-lived, with growth... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BRICs drive pick-up in EM inflation A pick-up in inflation in all four of BRIC economies pushed aggregate EM inflation to an eight-month high last month. However, the bigger picture remains that in most EMs inflation is both low and... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
