Emerging Europe Economics Update Steady core inflation indication of a structural EM slowdown Most of the recent slowdown in inflation across the emerging world has been the result of the weakness in food and fuel inflation. Meanwhile, core inflation is barely any lower than a couple of years... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) The rise in April’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) across most of Central and South Eastern Europe was encouraging, particularly in light of the drop in the corresponding figure for the euro... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia’s economy slumps, growth weakens in Turkey The region’s two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – have continued to struggle over the past month. Russia’s economy appears to have contracted sharply by around 3% y/y in Q1. Meanwhile, we... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth sinks as BRICs woes deepen EM growth appears to have sunk to a post-crisis low of around 4% y/y in the first quarter of this year, driven in large part by a deepening downturn in the BRICs. China has grabbed most of the... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the rally in emerging market equities continue? Since the end of Q1, the return from the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has been impressive and eclipsed that from the MSCI World Index of developed market equities. Such outperformance has been a rare... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The EC’s case against Gazprom – the key points The European Commission today charged Gazprom with abusing its dominant position in Eastern Europe’s gas market. In this Update, we answer five key questions about the decision and the implications... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank tinkers around the edges to defend lira The Turkish central bank left its official interest rates unchanged today, but managed to make its monetary policy framework even more complex by tweaking a few obscure tools in an effort to release... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC signals further easing to come The communiqué accompanying today’s decision by the Hungarian National Bank to cut its two-week deposit rate by 15bp, to 1.80%, was very similar to last month’s and clearly indicated that another... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The implications of a fall in EM dollar GDP There is a good chance that emerging market GDP, measured in dollar terms, will fall this year. But while this will weigh on investors’ dollar-denominated returns and could raise debt burdens in EMs... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Mar.) The raft of strong Polish activity data for March was flattered by calendar effects but, even so, the economy clearly ended the first quarter of the year on a strong note. All in all, it looks like... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China’s slowdown ripples across emerging world The effects of slower growth in China are already rippling across the emerging world. Indeed, while China’s economy is still growing by anywhere between 5–7% y/y depending on whose numbers you choose... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment & Ind. Prod. (Mar.) Today’s raft of activity data for March is consistent with Russia’s economy having contracted by around 3% y/y in the first quarter of this year. Although financial markets have rallied over the past... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Strong Turkish inflation is deep-rooted There is a growing debate in Turkey about what lies behind the strength of inflation, but we think this discussion has overlooked the absence of spare capacity. Without structural reforms to address... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export performance remains dire Although EM exports contracted less sharply in February, the improvement was almost entirely down to a surge in China’s exports, which have been distorted by shifts in the timing of Chinese New Year... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Making sense of the ruble rally The most convincing explanation for the recent rally in the ruble is the fact that the strains in Russia’s balance of payments have eased since the start of the year. Nonetheless, they haven’t gone... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Lessons from history: is a debt problem brewing in EMs? We have been warning about the dangers stemming from rapid credit growth in several EMs for a while. In this Focus we revisit the possible lessons from history. Three points stand out – with... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
