Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production, Retail Sales & Construction (May) Polish activity data for May were a mixed bag, with strengthening consumer spending broadly offsetting weakness in industry. Overall, it looks like GDP may have grown by around 3.5% y/y, roughly in... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Weak EM exports keep concerns over global demand alive Most of the weakness in emerging market exports in recent months can be pinned on the impact of lower commodity prices and the strength of the US dollar. But there are lingering concerns surrounding... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed tightening and EMs: risks revisited Yesterday’s statement by US Fed officials suggests that the FOMC is still on course to raise interest rates at September’s meeting. EM financial markets have taken this in their stride today and... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why there is no free lunch for Russia’s government There appears to be a great deal of confusion about how Russia can use its oil funds to finance its budget deficit, with some arguing that by drawing them down in rubles the government can both... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (May) The sharper-than-expected fall in Polish consumer prices last month reinforces our view that the central bank will be under little pressure to raise interest rates any time soon. The market, which is... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC hints at smaller rate cuts ahead The Russian central bank cut its one-week repo rate by 100bp, to 11.5%, at today’s MPC meeting, but struck a more cautious note on the near-term outlook for inflation. As a result, while we expect... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting the “Grexit” threat to Eastern Europe The clock is ticking for Greece to unlock much-needed funding and stay in the euro-zone. And if it fails and were to leave the single currency, the impact of this wouldn’t be felt in Greece alone. In... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Apr.) Even though Turkey’s current account deficit narrowed in April, the bigger picture is that it remains large. And the composition of external financing is a key vulnerability, with foreign direct... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack What next for EM dollar-denominated sovereign bonds? Emerging market dollar-denominated government bonds have significantly underperformed their local currency counterparts since the end of April. However, this has generally been due to a surge in... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1) We wouldn’t get carried away by the better-than-expected 2.3% y/y rise in Turkish GDP in Q1. This stronger outturn was caused by a sharp pick-up in consumer spending, which came at the cost of a lower... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rate hikes back on table amid post-election uncertainty The Turkish lira has stabilised today, but it remains vulnerable to further weakness. Faced with another leg down, we think the central bank might in the first instance lower the FX depo rate or scale... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech & Hungary CPI (May) Stronger-than-expected inflation figures for last month in both the Czech Republic and Hungary will remove any lingering concerns about deflation. However, large amounts of spare capacity will keep... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update After the election: what next for Turkish politics? The market’s reaction to Sunday’s inconclusive Turkish parliamentary election was overwhelming negative. In this Update, we outline three scenarios to show how the political situation might develop. 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Oil windfall felt unevenly across EMs The fall in oil prices hasn’t so far been the boon for household spending in the emerging world that might have been expected, but it does appear to have contributed to stronger private consumption in... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Political uncertainty adds to an already ugly picture in Turkey The loss by Turkey’s AK Party of its parliamentary majority for the first time since 2002 makes President Erdogan’s desire to change the constitution to strengthen the presidency a pipe dream and... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Prospects diverge Emerging Europe’s economy is likely to contract this year for the first time since 2009, but prospects differ substantially across the region. In Russia, while financial strains have eased, the... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
