Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation set to rebound despite latest oil price fall The latest fall in global oil prices will not be enough to prevent a rise in EM inflation later this year. It is, however, another reason to think the rebound in inflation will be relatively benign... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update No need to fret about recent currency declines Most EM currencies have fallen over the past month, with many now at or close to multi-year lows against the US dollar. For the majority of countries the economic impact of recent currency weakness is... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian debt fears ease a little, but default still likely Fears about a near-term and potentially messy default by Ukraine eased a little this month, providing some respite for the country’s sovereign dollar debt. But even so, some form of default still... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier currencies suffer Frontier market currencies are having a difficult time, with only three of the 31 currencies that we follow gaining ground against the US dollar over the past month. The biggest decline has been in... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Greek deal brings sigh of relief Greece’s move towards a third bailout has brought relief to Central and South Eastern Europe where concerns about contagion were very real, particularly in the Balkans. While it is too early to say... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How will Czech policymakers respond to the rising koruna? The strength of the Czech koruna has raised concerns at the National Bank about a fresh slowdown in inflation and, in the first instance, we think the MPC will try to ease pressure on the currency by... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank keeps rates on hold, but hikes on horizon The statement accompanying today’s Turkish central bank decision, at which interest rates were lef tunchanged, made it clear that the MPC isn’t reading too much into June’s much sharper-than-expected... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM rate cutting cycle nearing an end So far in July, more EM central banks have hiked interest rates than have cut rates – the first time this has happened since December last year. We expect to see further policy rate cuts in a few more... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank not backtracking on ruble free float Recent concerns that Russia’s central bank is abandoning the ruble free float seem overdone. While policymakers will undoubtedly keep a close eye on the ruble and intervene on the FX market in order... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Warsaw retail set to benefit from strengthening consumer sector The Polish economy has started the year positively, supported by the recovering consumer sector. We expect further improvement in consumer finances to support retailer demand growth. The effect on... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC ends easing cycle, pledges loose policy Having cut its two-week deposit rate by a slightly larger-than-expected 15bp to 1.35% earlier today, the Hungarian MPC made it clear that no further rate cuts were likely. But at the same time, the... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports nearing a trough Exports from emerging markets continued to be dragged down in May by the impact of low commodity prices and the strength of the US dollar. But as these effects start to unwind over the second half of... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment, IP (Jun.) & Poland IP (Jun.) Russia’s activity data for June made for grim reading. The hit to consumer-facing sectors has been particularly severe, but industry has struggled too. We estimate that GDP contracted by around 5% y/y... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Jun.) Polish deflation eased a little in June, but this was entirely the result of smaller falls in food and energy prices than in May. Meanwhile, it looks like core inflation edged down a little. 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the slump in Russian industry? The collapse in Russian industrial output in the second quarter appears to have been driven by the unwinding of one-off supports to a couple of sectors, as well further weakness in domestic demand... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Still stuck in a rut The slowdown in EM growth should bottom out over the second half of this year, but we don’t foresee a significant rebound in 2016-17. 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
