Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey & Hungary Industrial Production (Jun.) The faster-than-expected expansion in Turkish industrial production, of 5.5% y/y, in June was, in part, due to a rebound in the auto sector following strikes in May. But overall, this figure adds to... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC hints at policy staying loose for longer The Czech MPC kept its policy interest rate and exchange rate ceiling unchanged earlier today, but the Council dropped its strongest hint yet in the accompanying press release that extremely loose... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q3 2015) The falls in commodity prices over the past year have caused consumer spending to slow in many commodity-exporting countries, with Russia and Brazil being hit particularly hard. Only consumers in... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response World Gold Official Reserves (Jun.) Buying by global central banks picked up pace in June, with Russia once again particularly active. Going forward, we expect further official purchases to be one of several factors supporting the price... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Another bad month for EM currencies Emerging market (EM) currencies suffered more heavy losses in the past month and while further big falls are hard to justify over a medium term horizon, there could be more downside in the near term... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jul.) Russian inflation picked up in July for the first time since March, but this was driven entirely by last month’s hikes in household utility tariffs. In contrast, core price pressures eased. Inflation... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Romanian MPC sounding increasingly cautious Having left its policy interest rate on hold at 1.75% earlier today, the Romanian MPC used this afternoon’s press conference to suggest that the government’s plans to loosen fiscal policy raise the... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing still subdued, Central Europe a bright spot July’s PMIs, published earlier today, showed that manufacturers across much of the emerging world struggled last month. The one bright spot was Central Europe, where the surveys improved in spite of... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Why have Turkish exports performed so badly? The weakness of Turkish exports over the first half of this year can in part be pinned on temporary factors including bad weather, strikes in the automobile sector and problems in major trading... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) & Turkey CPI (Jul.) Last month’s PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that the escalation of the Greek crisis had little impact on manufacturing in Central Europe. Meanwhile, there was good news from Turkey as the PMI ticked... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC cuts rates, but ruble concerns come to the fore The Russian central bank (CBR) cut its one-week repo rate by 50bp, to 11.0%, today, but the recent fall in the ruble triggered a clear shift in the Council’s tone, and policymakers are no longer... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Turkey’s mooted new policy rate Comments from Turkish central bank (CBRT) Governor Erdem Basci earlier today that the Bank is planning to move away from using its complex interest rate “corridor” and towards the use of a single... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jul.) The falls in July’s Economic Sentiment Indicators across much of Emerging Europe were disappointing in light of the rise in the German survey. But even so, the figures are still consistent with strong... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth dragged down by Russia and Brazil EM growth slowed to its weakest pace since 2009 in May. But the aggregate data have been pulled down by problems in Russia and Brazil. In contrast, other parts of the EM world have seen a pick-up in... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble slump concerns CBR, but easing cycle likely to continue The move by Russia’s central bank to halt its foreign currency purchases suggests that policymakers have become increasingly concerned by the recent slump in the ruble. But even so, the impact on both... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed won’t spark EM sell-off today, but data may add to volatility We do not expect any fireworks in EM financial markets after today’s FOMC statement, but with policymakers likely to reiterate that the timing of “lift-off” will be data dependent our upbeat view on... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
