Frontier Markets Wrap Which frontier market peg could be the next to go? The recent devaluation of China’s renminbi and the slump in commodity prices were the two key factors behind Vietnam’s decision last week to widen the dong trading band with the dollar and the... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM currencies take a beating on China worries The impact of China’s renminbi devaluation is continuing to be felt across emerging markets. The Kazakh central bank today scrapped its trading band for the tenge, which subsequently fell by over 20%... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Still room for revision of rate expectations in EM bond market Local currency government bonds have been a port in the emerging market (EM) storm during the past year, as investors have revised down their expectations for policy rates. While they are now... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment & Industrial Production (Jul.) The raft of Russian activity data for July, released today, showed that the economy continued to contract by 4-5% y/y at the start of Q3. And the latest drop in oil prices means that the fall in... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Jul.) The raft of Polish activity data for July were slightly disappointing, but we don’t think this marks the start of a more serious downturn. Indeed, it still looks like the economy was growing by around... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update After the falls: where next for EM currencies? The most recent declines in emerging market currencies have been driven by renewed falls in global commodity prices, China’s ‘devaluation’ of the renminbi, and worries about the prospect of monetary... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC strikes hawkish note, unveils new policy plans The Turkish central bank (CBRT) kept its benchmark rates on hold today, but the accompanying statement struck a hawkish note in response to the latest fall in the lira. In addition, the Bank’s... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2015) Flash Q2 GDP data from Central and South Eastern Europe serve as a reminder that it’s not all doom and gloom for the emerging world. GDP in the region as a whole grew by a robust 3.5% y/y. The Czech... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Prospect of fresh elections adds to headaches for Turkey Markets have reacted negatively to news that coalition negotiations between the two largest parties in Turkey have broken down and that fresh elections are now highly likely. While we don’t think... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Jul.) The Polish economy remained in deflation in July, with consumer prices falling by 0.7% y/y, and the latest drop in oil prices may have pushed inflation deeper into negative territory this month. Even... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Spillovers to EMs from renminbi “devaluation” limited The decision by the People’s Bank of China to reduce the daily reference rate for the renminbi has generated plenty of headlines about spillovers to other EMs. In practice, however, we think that... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Jun.) & Hungary CPI (Jul.) Turkey’s current account deficit narrowed in dollar terms in June, but only because imports dropped by more than exports. Moreover, the financing of the deficit remains a source of vulnerability... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2) Russia’s recession deepened in Q2 of this year and with oil prices having since taken another leg down, the economic prospects for the coming quarters look pretty grim too. Industry appears to have... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 GDP data to highlight divergence in the region The raft of preliminary second quarter GDP data due to be released this week in Emerging Europe is likely to show that the recession in Russia deepened, but that growth in Central and South Eastern... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Jul.) The weaker-than-expected 0.5% y/y rise in Czech consumer prices last month may bethe first sign that the recent appreciation of the koruna is starting to drag downinflation. Even so, with the economy... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Winners and losers from the latest commodity collapse Of the major EMs, the biggest losers from the most recent fall in commodity prices have been Russia, Nigeria and Colombia, while the biggest winners have been Korea, India and Thailand. A similar... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
