Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM industry in the doldrums Industrial production growth in the emerging world remains very weak, with our aggregate measure of EM industrial output expanding by just 2.2% y/y in the three months to July – the slowest pace since... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update In search of bright spots With good news thin on the ground in the emerging world, it’s reassuring that there are at least a few emerging markets (EMs) where growth is holding up well. Most notably, the economies of Central... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Aug.) Deflation in Poland eased a little last month as a fall in energy inflation was more than offset by strengthening food inflation. We expect the headline rate to return to positive territory in the... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Another look at the EM export slowdown Much of the gloom currently hanging over the EM world is warranted, but there are reasons to think that the slump in exports, at least, will start to reverse toward the end of this year. That said... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s MPC keeps rates on hold due to ruble weakness Today’s decision by the Russian central bank to keep interest rates on hold at 11.00% having cut rates at each of its previous meetings this year, clearly reflects policymakers’ concerns about the... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Fresh commodity price weakness weighs on EM exports EM exports fell sharply in July on the back of the renewed drop in global commodity prices. And the early data suggest that things are unlikely to have improved last month either. 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM equities the biggest casualty of Fed uncertainty Equity markets in the emerging world have been the biggest casualty of the uncertainty about when the Fed will finally push the button on rate hikes. For our part, we still expect “lift-off” later... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Talk of EM capital controls is overdone Despite concerns in some quarters, EM policymakers are unlikely to introduce capital controls. Many EMs are dependent on capital inflows – which capital controls would discourage – and many are likely... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM foreign currency debt to perform badly, but crisis unlikely We do not think that the downgrade of the Brazilian government’s foreign currency debt to “junk” status marks the beginning of a systemic emerging market (EM) sovereign debt crisis. But we do expect... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EMs and Fed tightening revisited The outcome of next week’s FOMC meeting is finely balanced, but it’s possible that it could deliver the first increase in US interest rates since 2006. In this Focus we revisit research we’ve... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Emerging Europe Data Response The sharp pick-up in Turkish GDP growth in Q2, to 3.8% y/y, provides some rare good news for the economy. However, we think this is likely to be temporary and higher inflation and tighter monetary... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s unemployment puzzle With the Russian economy in a deep recession, the fact that the unemployment rate has remained at historic lows is puzzling. As we explain in this Watch, one explanation may be that large firms –... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Which EM currencies are most vulnerable to snap sell-offs? Our Currency Vulnerability Index (Curvi) suggests that the Brazilian real, Turkish lira, South African rand and Colombian peso remain the most exposed emerging market (EM) currencies to snap sell-offs... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Aug.) The fall in Czech inflation in August, to 0.3% y/y, was driven largely by steeper falls in food and energy prices and, as a result, shouldn’t raise too many concerns about the risk of deflation... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2015) Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that total capital outflows from EMs increased in August to their highest level since the global financial crisis. This was overwhelmingly due to flows out of China. By... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Jul.) & Hungary CPI (Aug.) The sharper-than-expected slowdown in Turkish industrial production in July, coming alongside the fall in August’s manufacturing PMI, reinforces our view that GDP growth is likely to weaken in the... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
