EM Valuations Monitor Dollar bond credit spreads unlikely to balloon We do not expect the stripped spread of the JP Morgan EMBI Global Index to rise much further. But with US Treasury yields likely to increase substantially in the months ahead, we think the overall... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian bonds rally on debt deal Ukraine’s debt-restructuring deal has led to a rally in the country’s bond market and eased pressure on the hryvnia . Meanwhile, although most of the region’s equity markets have fallen over the past... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The declines in this month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators across much of Central and Eastern Europe were disappointing, particularly in light of the relatively impressive reading from Germany. But... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth slower, but not collapsing Emerging market (EM) growth has slowed further recently, but there is no sign of the collapse that some are talking about. In fact, there is tentative evidence that EM growth has begun to stabilise. 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency falls compound inflation troubles for some EMs While inflation in the EM world is low on average, there are big divergences. In particular, many of the economies already struggling with high inflation are also those that have seen their currencies... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Europe’s migrant crisis: how might CEE be affected? There are few signs that Europe’s migrant crisis has had much economic impact on Central Eastern Europe (CEE). However, if recent border controls were to become a permanent fixture, the region could... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Another drop in frontier market currencies Uncertainty over the outlook for monetary policy in the US and renewed concerns about the health of China’s economy are weighing heavily on frontier market currencies. The weakest currency has again... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Credit conditions in Russia to remain tight for some time Credit conditions in Russia have tightened substantially over the past six months or so, with households and SMEs being particularly hard hit. We don’t expect a significant turnaround anytime soon... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC dovish, Ukraine’s suggests further rate cuts coming Having left monetary policy unchanged earlier today, the Czech MPC struck a dovish note at this afternoon’s press conference, although it looks like the strength of the latest economic data prevented... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Central & South Eastern Europe a rare EM bright spot Emerging Europe remains a region of two halves. Its two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – will continue to struggle over the coming years as cyclical downturns compound long-standing structural... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Currency sell-off takes its toll on Russia and Turkey The Russian ruble and Turkish lira have been among the hardest hit EM currencies this quarter and this has already started to feed through into the real economy. Inflation is on the rise (again)... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC slowly taking a more hawkish line The Turkish central bank left its official interest rates on hold today, but tweaks to its policy framework and to the accompanying statement suggest that the MPC is (slowly) taking a more hawkish... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Financial risks still low in most Ems Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that, for all the recent talk of an “EM crisis”, financial risks in most of the emerging world are low. There is certainly nothing in the CERI to... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment & Industrial Production (Aug.) Rosstat’s monthly raft of activity data showed that the Russian economy continued to contract in August at a pace of around 4.5-5.0% y/y. However, the figures provide the first signs that the pace at... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Aug.) August’s Polish activity data were generally a little weaker-than-expected, but even so it looks like the economy continued to grow at a robust pace of around 3.5% y/y in Q3. At the margin, these data... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM debt: Where do the risks lie? The decision by S&P to downgrade Brazil’s sovereign debt rating to junk last week has refocused attention on EM debt burdens. As it happens, we have been warned about rising debt levels in Brazil for... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
