Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation to rebound soon Although aggregate EM inflation slowed slightly in September, it is set to rise in the months ahead as the drag from last year’s slump in oil prices fades. 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM rates to follow divergent paths The shift towards looser monetary policy in the emerging world earlier this year is over and, with the first rate hike in the US inching nearer, we think that many EMs are likely to tighten policy... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) This month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were encouraging – our regional aggregate rose to its highest level since September 2008. Admittedly, there were some... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Signs of improvement in latest EM data Against the backdrop of ongoing talk of an EM slowdown, it appears that growth in the emerging world has actually been fairly steady in recent months. In fact, the latest reading of our EM GDP Tracker... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Commodity currencies may have found a floor Our forecast that the prices of many natural resources will edge a little higher over the next couple of years suggests that the downside for commodity currencies will be limited even after the Fed... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe loses some of its shine Central Europe has been a rare bright spot in the emerging world over the past few quarters, but recent developments have taken some of the gloss off. Activity and survey data for August and September... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update More support for EM equities on the way Attractive valuations, loose global monetary conditions and a recovery in China should support further gains in emerging market equities. Indeed, we continue to expect the MSCI Emerging Markets Index... 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Law & Justice victory dampens Poland’s medium-term outlook Exit polls suggest that the opposition Law and Justice won a convincing victory in yesterday’s Polish parliamentary election, which is likely to cement concerns about a shift towards more populist... 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Upcoming elections key to outlook for several FMs Four frontier markets are due to hold national elections in the coming month. The most high-profile election is in Argentina where Daniel Scioli, the candidate of the ruling left-wing coalition... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets in Russia & Turkey recover some lost ground Currencies, equities and bonds in the region’s two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – have posted gains over the past month as oil prices have stabilised and expectations for US rate hikes have... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth subdued but stable There has been very little in the latest data to justify fears of a widespread collapse in emerging markets. While economic growth remains subdued, conditions appear to have stabilised in recent... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC belatedly acknowledges dire inflation outlook The Turkish MPC left its key interest rates unchanged today, but the accompanying press release suggests that the Council may finally have recognised that inflation is set to rise further. This... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC pledges to keep policy loose for longer The National Bank of Hungary’s MPC kept its policy interest rate unchanged at 1.35% earlier today, but the Council used the accompanying press release to commit to keeping interest rates on hold at... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Inv. & IP (Sep.) & Poland IP (Sep.) September’s activity data from Russia suggest that while the downturn in industry seems to have bottomed out, the slump in consumer spending has deepened. Retail sales are now falling at their... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Should we fear a shift to populism in Poland? Rising support for the opposition Law and Justice party ahead of Poland’s parliamentary election on 25th October has raised concerns about a move towards more populist policymaking. We think that any... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports show signs of bottoming out EM exports continued to fall sharply in August, but the early data for September provide some hope that the worst may now be over. The year-on-year pace of contraction in export values is likely to... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
