Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC signals unconventional easing The accompanying press release to today’s MPC decision in Hungary, at which the deposit rate was left unchanged at 1.35%, was dovish and suggested that unconventional measures to loosen policy will be... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed tightening & EMs: what to watch for The likelihood that the Fed will begin to raise interest rates this week has sparked fresh concerns about the knock-on impact on emerging markets. However, we think that most EMs are now well placed... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank waits for inflation drop before easing The accompanying statement to today’s MPC meeting in Russia, at which the repo rate was left unchanged, was decidedly cautious and it’s clear that policymakers are waiting for firmer signs that... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack 2015: A year of divergence Economic performances have diverged markedly across Emerging Europe this year, due in large part to the collapse in oil prices. Lower energy costs have kept inflation low in Central and South Eastern... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM currencies stable as Fed lift-off approaches Relative calm in most EM currencies over the past month (the Colombian peso and Russian ruble being the obvious exceptions) supports our view that emerging markets are generally well placed to... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Contraction in EM exports to ease in 2016 EM export revenues are on track to fall by a trillion dollars (equivalent to about 3.5% of EM GDP) this year compared to 2014. Although exports are set to remain weak in 2016, we expect the pace of... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3) The sharp pick-up in Turkish GDP growth in Q3, to 5.4% y/y, may help to alleviate some of the political pressure on the central bank to keep policy loose. This reinforces our view that the central... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key calls for EMs in 2016 The EM world looks to have grown by its weakest pace since the global financial crisis in 2015, but things should start to improve next year. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we think... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Declining EU investment funds in 2016 not a disaster for CEE One factor that has supported growth in Central and Eastern Europe this year is a rise in EU structural funding, but this looks set to ease in 2016. As we explain in this Watch, while this will reduce... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Nov.) The much weaker-than-expected rise in Czech consumer prices last month, of just 0.1% y/y, is unlikely to raise fresh concerns about deflation. But even so, it may tip the balance on the MPC in favour... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are we wrong on EM equities? The renewed slump in emerging market (EM) equities perhaps calls into question our view that they will perform well in 2016/17. But the latest declines have been driven by a fall in commodity prices... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Oct.) & Hungary CPI (Nov.) The pick-up in Turkish industrial production growth in October, coming alongside an uptick in the latest business surveys, suggests that the economy continued to perform strongly in Q4. Elsewhere... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Most EMs well-placed to weather Fed tightening Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial risks in the emerging world in aggregate are low and there is little to suggest that the onset of Fed tightening will trigger an EM... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Nov.) The jump in Turkish inflation to a much higher than expected 8.1% y/y in November reinforces our view that the central bank will be forced to hike interest rates over the coming months. 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Recovery in EM manufacturing continues, but remains uneven November’s PMI surveys, published today, point to a continued but extremely patchy recovery across the EM world. Industry seems to be doing better in Emerging Asia and Emerging Europe but the PMIs for... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
