Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: what to expect in 2016 So far as Russia is concerned, the best that can be said for 2016 is that it should be a year in which the economy stabilises. Even a marked rebound in oil prices would be unlikely to spur a return to... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Nov.) Turkey’s balance of payments data for November showed that exports remained weak. But, on a more positive note, the current account deficit continued to narrow and the figures also indicated that the... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Nov.) Turkish industrial production expanded by a weaker-than-expected 3.5% y/y in November, but the data suggest that growth over Q4 as a whole was strong. 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC stresses risks from loose fiscal policy Romanian National Bank Governor Mugur Isarescu gave little away at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference, but the tone of the accompanying statement suggested that the MPC is concerned about... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) December’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that activity may have eased a little from November. Even so, it looks like growth over Q4 as a whole was stronger than... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM markets tumble but PMIs relatively reassuring Equities and currencies have weakened across the emerging world today but the latest economic data, in the form of the manufacturing PMIs, point to a further slight improvement in December. A fall in... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Flash CPI (Dec.) The 0.5% y/y fall in Polish consumer prices was larger than we had expected and, coming alongside the latest fall in oil prices, raises the risk that inflation will remain in negative territory in the... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs & Turkey CPI (Dec.) December’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe provided an early sign that the latest fall in oil prices has hit activity in Russia. Meanwhile, the stronger-than-expected Turkish inflation figure... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Argentina goes orthodox The inauguration of President Mauricio Macri has brought about a shift towards more orthodox economic policymaking in Argentina. Over a decade of populist and interventionist macroeconomic policy has... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank holds fire, plays a dangerous game The decision by the Turkish central bank to keep interest rates on hold, when hikes had been widely anticipated, will probably result in renewed concerns that the MPC’s decisions are being swayed by... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling oil prices add to headwinds facing Russia’s economy The latest fall in oil prices has added to the uncertainty over the outlook for Russia’s economy. In this Update we revisit the mechanisms through which lower oil prices affect Russia and outline what... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latest oil price fall will keep inflation lower for longer Inflation still looks likely to rise in most EMs next year, despite the recent slump in oil prices. However, the rebound will now be more gradual, which will allow central banks in most economies to... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth steady as Fed starts to tighten Emerging market (EM) growth remained fairly stable in October, as it has for much of the year. Looking ahead, we expect EM growth to pick up a touch in 2016, even as the Fed tightens monetary policy. 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A bad month for the ruble, other currencies fared well The Russian ruble was the worst performing EM currency over the past month, tumbling by 6% against the US dollar on the back of the latest decline in oil prices. But currencies elsewhere in the region... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia & Poland Activity Data (Nov.) The latest batch of Russian activity data, released today, show that the recovery slowed last month and, worryingly, this came before the latest fall in oil prices. In contrast to Russia, November’s... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC stays dovish, but doesn’t extend koruna cap pledge The Czech National Bank’s MPC once again struck a dovish note in the post-meeting statement and, although the Council didn’t extend its commitment to the koruna cap beyond next year (as we thought... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
