Emerging Europe Economics Update How successful has Hungary’s unorthodox monetary policy been? Hungary’s National Bank has radically reorganised its monetary policy framework over the past couple of years, in the process moving away from interest rate cuts and turning to increasingly unorthodox... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slovakia: hung parliament unlikely to dampen near-term growth The divided result in Slovakia’s parliamentary election raises the prospect of a period of political uncertainty and, quite possibly, the need for a second election. However, we don’t think this will... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Capital value growth to slow Capital value growth is likely to have peaked in 2015, but further falls in yields and steady rental value growth will keep capital values rising in 2016 and 2017. Yet, there will be country and city... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Russia’s industry unlikely to reap benefit of weak ruble In theory, at least, Russian manufacturing should be among the biggest beneficiaries from a weaker ruble. However, a weak currency alone is unlikely to trigger an industrial turnaround in Russia... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Law and Justice’s first few months in power Poland’s Law and Justice Party has had a whirlwind first few months in power and, in this Watch, we look at the policies introduced so far. The short point is that fiscal measures have been more or... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Feb.) The much weaker-than-expected Turkish inflation figure for February, of 8.8% y/y, adds to reasons to think that the central bank will continue to resist hiking interest rates. But the key point is... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Manufacturing PMI surveys fall across EMs The fall in February’s manufacturing PMI surveys across emerging markets serves as a reminder that, while the worst for the industrial sectors in most EMs is probably behind us, conditions remain... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) Last month’s batch of manufacturing PMIs from Emerging Europe was a mixed bag, but overall the surveys suggest that growth in Central Europe continued to hold up well at the start of this year. 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth stable but subdued Our GDP Trackers suggest that aggregate EM growth was stable at the end of last year as a dip in Emerging Asia was offset by signs of recovery in Emerging Europe . The improvement in Emerging Europe... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) The decline in this month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for Central and Eastern Europe was disappointing, but the surveys were still strong and point to GDP growth in the region as a whole of... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Price pressures from currency slumps set to fade Sharp falls in currencies pushed up inflation in Emerging Europe and Latin America last year. The impact in Emerging Europe has already started to unwind and we expect the same in Latin America before... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Which EM equity markets are set to shine? Time will tell if the recent rebound in emerging market (EM) equities was a turning point, but we remain cautiously optimistic that they will outperform those in the developed world in 2016/17. 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Ukraine’s political crisis re-escalates Political tensions have once again come to the fore in Ukraine, putting the country’s IMF programme at risk. Although the government survived a no confidence vote, the ruling coalition has fallen... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Growing divergences among EMs Aggregate EM growth has continued to disappoint in recent months with signs of a renewed (albeit small) deceleration in the latest data. Perhaps more important though is the widening divergence in... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for EMs? Over the past week we have published a four-part series analysing the key issues that will shape the outlook for emerging markets. In this Update , we summarise the main messages. 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s MPC dodges tightening, Hungary’s flags easing The Turkish central bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged despite the worsening inflation outlook underlines the extent to which political pressures seem to be bearing on the MPC. The... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
