Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey GDP (Q4 2023)

The pick-up in Turkish GDP growth to 1.0% q/q in Q4 was driven by a rebound in private consumption and suggests that aggressive monetary tightening has yet to take the sting out of domestic demand...

29th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Activity Data (Feb.)

The latest activity data for January suggest that Russia’s economy maintained solid growth at the start of this year, which supports our forecast for above-potential GDP growth of 3.0% over the course...

28th February 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Romania needs to reduce its macro imbalances

Romania’s large twin budget and current account deficits remain a key concern. One near-term risk is that fiscal policy stays very loose (or is loosened further), particularly in view of elections...

28th February 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.)

The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally fell in February, but still point to regional GDP growth strengthening in Q1.

28th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.)

27th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.)

Israel’s central bank opted to leave interest rates on hold at 4.50% today – in contrast to the consensus view for a cut – and the communications continued to emphasise upside inflation risks...

26th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE wage growth still hot, new Russia sanctions

The latest wage data released out of Poland and Hungary this week showed that labour cost pressures have remained very strong in parts of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). So despite another slew of...

23rd February 2024 · 9 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 2024)

Our Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis. The property correction slowed slightly at the end of last year, but we think the fall in capital...

23rd February 2024 · 0 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.)

The hawkish statement accompanying the Turkish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 45.00% today supports our view that a shift to monetary easing remains some way off and we...

22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Activity Data (Jan.)

Poland’s activity data for January suggest that the reacceleration in wage growth at the start of this year supported domestic demand, while the export-orientated industrial sector struggled. We think...

22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2024)

Property valuations improved in Q4 on the back of further rises in property yields and falls in alternative asset yields. This resulted in many office and retail markets shifting into fair value...

21st February 2024 · 0 mins read

Event

EM Drop-In: Russia election 2024 – War, sanctions and commodities

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The outcome of Russia’s presidential election is a forgone conclusion.

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Unpacking this year’s EM bond issuance bonanza

EM sovereigns have issued a record amount of FX debt at the start of this year, capitalising on a window created by the decline in US Treasury yields since October. The issuance has been concentrated...

20th February 2024 · 4 mins read

Long Run Economic Outlook

AI productivity boom tempered by protectionist threat

The AI revolution should deliver substantial productivity gains in the coming decade, particularly in advanced economies. But with working age populations falling in key areas and China’s economy in...

20th February 2024 · 1 hr, 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Israel GDP (Q4 2023)

The 19.4% q/q annualised contraction in Israeli GDP in Q4 was much worse than had been expected and highlights the extent of the hit from the Hamas attacks and the war in Gaza. While a recovery looks...

19th February 2024 · 2 mins read