Emerging Markets Economics Update After the panic, what next for EMs? The sense of crisis that had been building in emerging markets has started to ease over the past month or so. So what next? In this Update we identify three risks – China, commodities and the threat... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Feb.) & Hungary CPI (Mar.) The sharper-than-expected increase in Turkish industrial production in February provides some evidence that local firms are benefiting from a weaker lira. Elsewhere, the decline in Hungary’s inflation... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC conference points to rates staying on hold The Polish MPC made it clear once again at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference that it’s not likely to loosen monetary policy in the near future. Although inflation will remain subdued, so... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Panic ebbs but outlook still subdued The sense of panic about emerging economies that gripped financial markets at the start of this year has eased. This is justified. There are few signs that the emerging world is on the brink of a... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next Turkish central bank governor faces unenviable job Uncertainty regarding who will take over at the helm of the Turkish central bank when the current governor’s term expires this month has raised concerns that a government loyalist could be put in... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Mar.) The sharp decline in Turkish inflation in March, to a seven-month low of 7.5% y/y, was driven by a drop in food inflation, and masked the fact that core inflation remains extremely strong. Even so... 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM Manufacturing PMI rises to strongest in a year The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI in March to its highest level in a year adds to evidence that economic conditions across the emerging world are improving. The pick-up in the survey in China is... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q4) The release of Russian Q4 GDP data today provides further evidence that the worst of the recession is now behind us. And monthly activity data suggest that the slump in activity continued to ease in... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Manufacturing PMIs declined last month in most of Emerging Europe, but overall they continue to paint a picture of a Russian economy that is still struggling and of outperformance in Central Europe... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC hints at rate hikes, Czech MPC stays dovish The Romanian MPC’s press conference this afternoon reinforced our view that concerns about loose fiscal policy will prompt a move towards tighter monetary conditions. This might happen as soon as the... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4) The whopping 5.7% y/y rise in Turkish GDP in Q4 was flattered by working day effects, but even taking this into account the economy remained extremely robust. The strong growth figures coming... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth dragged down by Brazil Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM growth dipped at the start of this year, but this appears to have been driven by deepening problems in Brazil and a recent soft patch in India. China’s... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.) The rise in the Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) in most Central and Eastern European economies this month was encouraging and suggests that growth in the region as a whole may turn out to be... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation rises in commodity consumers but stays below target Seasonal factors pushed up food inflation in Asia last month, but the underlying picture is that inflation remains below target in commodity-consuming EMs in Asia as well as in Central Europe. In... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble rebound leads market rally in Emerging Europe Financial markets across Emerging Europe have recouped some of their earlier losses this month. The Russian ruble has been the region’s star performer, posting the largest gains among all EM... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC bows to government pressure The Turkish central bank’s surprise decision to reduce its overnight lending rate by 25bp to 10.5% today was dressed up as a move to simplify the monetary setup, but it appears to be a result of... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
