Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency effects begin to unwind The effects of sharp falls in EM exchange rates since 2014 – which pushed inflation up to multi-year highs in a number of major economies – are now starting to fade. Assuming there isn’t another big... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Oil rally helps to lift pessimism over Russia Some of the gloom surrounding Russia’s economy seems to have lifted over the past month. The rise in oil prices has triggered a rally in local financial markets – the ruble is up by 12% against the... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontiers ask the IMF to come to their rescue A number of frontier markets have turned to the IMF for financial support over the past few months in order to counter strains in their balance of payments. Angola has formally opened negotiations... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish inflation to continue easing (for now) The sharp decline in Turkish inflation since January has caught many (ourselves included) by surprise and we think the headline rate is likely to continue to fall over the rest of this year. That... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Some respite for commodity producers The worst looks to be over for many EM commodity producers. Their currencies have again been among the best performers this month, helped by a continued recovery in commodity prices. The slump in... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank can ride the wave of surplus liquidity The Russian government’s use of its oil funds to finance the budget deficit will cause the monetary base to expand and is likely to push the banking sector from having a deficit of liquidity to a... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New Turkish central bank governor likely to cut rates further The Turkish MPC’s 50bp cut in the overnight lending rate today, to 10.0%, was pinned on the recent improvement in inflation (although political pressure no doubt played a role) and with the headline... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) Russia’s activity data for March were weaker than in February, as expected, but the broad trend is still that the slump in the economy is easing. GDP probably contracted by around 2.0% y/y over Q1 as... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Ukraine still needs the IMF At first sight, the sharp fall in Ukraine’s current account deficit over the past few years suggests that the economy’s external vulnerabilities have diminished significantly. But that masks the fact... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Mar.) The disappointing Polish activity data for March suggest that overall GDP growth may have slipped below 3% y/y. However, we don’t think this marks the start of a sharp slowdown; indeed, we expect... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export decline easing off The rate at which EM exports are declining slowed markedly in February. Rising commodity prices and a rebound in China should boost exports later this year. 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker suggests that total capital outflows from EMs eased further in March, reaching a nine-month low of just under $40bn. One reason is that the recent improvement in sentiment towards EMs has... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM oil producers unlikely to follow Angola to the IMF Angola last week became the first EM oil producer to turn to the IMF since oil prices started to fall in 2014. In the near-term, we don’t expect any others to follow suit. External risks in EM oil... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Has Turkey regained competitiveness? There is some evidence that the fall in the lira in the past few years has led to import substitution in parts of Turkey’s manufacturing sector, suggesting that the economy’s competitiveness has... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Resignation of Ukrainian PM reignites concerns over IMF deal The resignation of Ukraine’s prime minister on Sunday, coming alongside waning support for the government, will reignite concerns over the future of the country’s frozen IMF programme. While for now... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Feb.) The decline in Turkey’s current account deficit in February was due almost entirely to lower oil prices, which reduced the energy import bill. We think the deficit is unlikely to improve from here on... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
