Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export recovery continues The rate at which EM exports are declining slowed sharply in March. We expect that higher commodity prices and an improvement in China’s economy will see export values return to growth later this year... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update C&SEE GDP growth slower, but still strong, in Q1 The flash Q1 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe (C&SEE) to be released later this week and next week are likely to point to growth of 3-3.5% y/y in most countries. Those rates would be... 10th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Mar.) The ongoing improvement in Turkey’s current account position in March was encouraging, but once again it was driven mainly by a falling energy import bill. Moreover, as last week’s sell-off in the... 10th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from EMs declined sharply in April to a 10-month low of a little over $10bn. Outflows from China remained relatively low compared to the past year, while... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Mar.) Turkish industrial production data for March indicate that the economy grew at a faster pace in Q1 than in Q4, but that the economy lost momentum towards the end of the quarter. What’s more, the... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC remains cautious, Czech MPC stays dovish The Romanian MPC once again sounded relatively hawkish at this afternoon’s press conference, and we remain comfortable with our view that monetary policy will be tightened later this year to take some... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Polish deflation: less than meets the eye? The persistent depth of deflation in Poland, particularly when compared with the rest of Central Europe, appears to be due largely to measurement issues, rather than significantly weaker domestic... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Likely resignation of Turkey’s PM raises authoritarianism fears Reports that Turkey’s Prime Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, is likely to quit his role amid growing tensions with President Erdogan will reinforce concerns about the shift towards increasingly... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs, financial risks and the Fed With the Fed leaving the door open to another interest rate hike at June’s FOMC meeting, focus is starting to shift once again to financial vulnerabilities in EMs. A handful of countries are likely to... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Apr.) The sharper-than-expected decline in Turkish inflation last month, to 6.6% y/y, supports our view that the central bank’s current easing cycle has further to run. However, the fall in the headline... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC more dovish, but rate cuts still some way off The statement by the Russian central bank following its decision to leave the one-week repo rate on hold today was dovish, but less so than what the markets seem to have expected. The Council’s... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor BRICs drive pick-up in EM growth Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth has turned a corner, with the BRIC economies leading the way. Looking ahead, we think that the BRICs will continue to drive a recovery in EM growth. We expect... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) This month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) in Emerging Europe were a mixed bag, providing early signs that Poland’s economy strengthened sharply at the start of Q2, while the other Central... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Warsaw offices rental value falls far from over Solid employment growth will support strong occupier demand for Warsaw offices. But , the city’s huge development pipeline will again push rents lower in both 2016 and 2017. As such, we expect prime... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC a little more cautious, but further rate cuts likely The statement accompanying today’s MPC meeting in Hungary was a little more cautious than we had expected, but even so, with inflation likely to stay subdued and growth weakening, we think there’s... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish bond market rallies It’s been a good month for Turkish financial markets. The lira and equities have strengthened. And the surprisingly sharp fall in inflation last month allowed the central bank to ease monetary policy... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
