Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) Manufacturing PMIs strengthened in most countries across Emerging Europe in May. The rise in the PMIs in Central Europe (Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic) provides further evidence that the... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth edges up for second consecutive month Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth picked up for the second consecutive month in March, suggesting that fears of an imminent collapse continue to be misplaced. The latest rise was broad-based but... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation prospects diverge as currency and oil price slumps unwind The unwinding effects of big exchange rate falls on import prices will continue to drive down inflation in a number of major EMs over the coming months. In those EMs that haven’t experienced a great... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s Eurobond reveals sanctions premium Russia's first Eurobond issue in three years showed that Western sanctions are no longer preventing the government from raising funds overseas – but by the same token, the amount raised ($1.75bn) was... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary ends easing cycle, Turkey’s has further to run Having cut its policy rate by 15bp to 0.90% earlier today, the National Bank of Hungary’s MPC used the accompanying press release to comment that interest rates would now be left unchanged. In... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How and where we differ from the consensus While we have consistently been among the most bearish forecasters of EMs over the past 4-5 years, the consensus has moved a long way in our direction over the past 12 months. Over the next year we... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) The improvement in the Russian activity data for April, coming on the back of last week’s better-than expected Q1 GDP figures, provides further evidence that the economy is on a slow path to recovery... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What would Brexit mean for Eastern Europe? With one month to go to the UK’s referendum on whether to remain in or leave the EU, concerns are growing in some quarters that a “Brexit” vote could harm Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). As things... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM central banks pause for breath Emerging market policymakers have been in tightening mode over the past year, but this reversed last month. Our EM interest rate diffusion index shows that more EM central banks cut rates than hiked... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier market governments push for reform Low commodity prices, slower growth and a string of elections have prompted a move towards reform in a handful of frontier market economies in recent months. But while these governments have made... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Apr.) The strength of Polish activity data for April, released today, confirms our suspicion that the weakness seen in Q1 was likely to prove temporary. Indeed, it looks like the economy expanded by around... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q1) The slowdown in Czech GDP in Q1, to 3.1% y/y from 4.0% y/y, confirms that last year’s bumper growth rates were temporary. But the economy is still strong and today’s figures, coming alongside... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2016) The shallower-than-expected 1.2% y/y fall in Russia’s GDP in the first quarter confirms that the acute phase of the crisis is now over. And the annual growth rate could return to the positive... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian reforms to remain difficult, despite Kudrin’s return The appointment of well-respected former Finance Minister, Alexei Kudrin, as the Deputy Head of the President’s Economic Council has revived hopes that Russia could be set for a new wave of... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2016) The slowdown in GDP growth in Central and South Eastern Europe in Q1 supports our view that the very rapid rates of expansion seen at the end of last year weren’t likely to last. At a country level... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM credit bubbles deflating, but risks building in China Credit growth is slowing in most of the economies we have previously identified as being at risk from a rapid build-up of private sector debt. The exception is China, where aggressive stimulus has... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
