Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (May) Today’s weaker-than-expected Russian activity data for May provide early signs that the fall in GDP in Q2 may be larger than in Q1. Consumer-facing sectors continued to bear the brunt of Russia’s... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian interest rates to fall by more than most expect The decision this month by Russia’s central bank to lower interest rates after a hiatus of close to a year has been followed by fairly hawkish comments from policymakers making clear that this does... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (May) Today’s batch of Polish activity data for May was disappointing and as things stand growth in Q2 is shaping up to be a little slower than Q1’s 3.0% y/y. But the slowdown has been modest and today’s... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting the risks from populism Concerns about the emergence of economic populism in Central and Eastern Europe are on the rise once again. This is already weighing on local financial markets and, although it’s not likely to have an... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker shows that, having spiked at the start of this year, capital outflows from the emerging world have fallen to almost zero over the past couple of months. 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs well placed to weather a Brexit vote A vote by the UK to leave the EU would likely cause ripples rather than shockwaves in the emerging world. Trade ties with the UK are too small to have a material impact on EM exporters. And while a... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC resumes easing cycle The decision by Russia’s central bank to cut its benchmark one-week repo rate by 50bp to 10.50% today was a close one but, having decided to start easing policy once again we think that interest rates... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1) & Current Account (Apr.) Growth in the Turkish economy slowed a little in Q1, but it was still extremely strong at 4.5% y/y in working day adjusted terms. Consumption remained the key driver of growth, while investment... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor “Brexit” poses little risk to EM Trade South Africa’s April output figures suggest that, after a disastrous Q1, the economy improved a touch going into Q2. But the country will still struggle to avoid a technical recession. 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting the EU’s sanctions on Russia The EU’s sanctions on Russia are due to expire in July and, while it is most likely that they will be renewed, it is possible that this comes alongside a broad timetable for scaling them back subject... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Apr.) The sharp slowdown in Turkish industry in April suggests that, after a relatively strong Q1, the economy probably slowed at the start of the second quarter. It looks like the boost to the... 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slump in investment dragged growth down in Q1 The breakdown of Q4 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe confirmed that the slowdown in growth at the start of the year was the result of a drop in fixed investment, most likely caused by... 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (May) Russian inflation remained unchanged at 7.3% y/y in May for the third consecutive month, but it looks like it is on course to edge up over the coming months. As a result, we think that the central... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional growth to strengthen as Russia exits recession Growth in Emerging Europe is set to strengthen over the next few quarters, helped in part by the fact that the drag from Russia will ease as it exits recession. However, while the acute stage of... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What are the risks for EMs? The wobble in financial markets in the emerging world since investors began to reassess the outlook for US monetary policy in May has been much smaller than in the past. The Fed, along with renewed... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey: defying gravity…for now After a period of relative calm, growing political tensions have once again led to a deterioration in sentiment towards Turkey. As it happens, we think the country’s growth prospects over the next 6-9... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
