Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) Russia’s activity data for June suggest that output probably contracted at the same pace in Q2 as it did in Q1. Industry has remained the key driver of the economy, but this has been offset by weak... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jun.) June’s strong activity data from Poland were flattered by working day effects, but the underlying trend seems pretty strong. Indeed, the figures suggest that GDP growth may have picked up to around 3... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export slump gradually easing The decline of EM values slowed, in US$ terms, again in May. The volume of EM exports, which is more important from an economic standpoint, actually rose. 18th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The economic implications of Turkey’s failed coup The near-term economic impact of Friday night’s attempted coup in Turkey will depend on the length and severity of market dislocation, but at the very least the economy is likely to suffer a period of... 18th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Where to look for signs of Brexit spillovers The market sell-off triggered by the UK’s vote to leave the EU has reversed, but there is still uncertainty about what a post-Brexit Europe will look like and in the meantime signs of strain are... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul 2016) Our Tracker suggests that capital outflows from the emerging world declined to their lowest level in a year in June. Admittedly, our estimate is clouded by some questions about the data from China... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Production & Current Account (May) Despite May’s sharper-than-expected rise in Turkish industrial production, growth over Q2 as a whole appears to have been weaker than in Q1. Meanwhile, May’s balance of payments data showed another... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary revamps monetary framework…again Planned changes by the National Bank of Hungary to its benchmark three-month deposit facility announced this afternoon could act to loosen monetary conditions, although in practice they seem unlikely... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What will Russia’s recovery look like? The Russian economy is through the acute phase of its crisis and a recovery should begin over the coming quarters. However, it will be extremely weak. We expect the economy to stagnate over 2016 as a... 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM pick-up to prove short-lived EM growth is likely to accelerate over the second half of this year, but a downward shift in potential growth means the recovery could hit the buffers in 2017-18. 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC shrugs off Brexit concerns…for now The Polish MPC used this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference to suggest that it was broadly unconcerned about the impact of the UK’s vote to leave the EU on the domestic economy, but we think... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting our Emerging Europe forecasts The negative economic spillovers on Central and South Eastern Europe from the UK’s vote for Brexit are likely to be smaller than many fear, but they will still drag on activity in the region... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for EM equities? British politics remains in turmoil following the vote for “Brexit”, but emerging market (EM) equities do not. There are likely to be more periodic sell-offs in risky assets in the months ahead, but... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jun.) The much sharper-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation last month, to 7.6% y/y, confirms our view that the recent falls in the headline rate were unsustainable. The central bank might still use last... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI weakens in June, but some good news The fall in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI in June suggests that growth probably weakened at the end of Q2. But there was some rare positive news from a handful of EM economies that have been... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the slump in Russia’s construction sector? Early signs suggest that Russia’s economic recovery may have stalled in the second quarter due largely to renewed weakness in the construction sector. This seems to be the result of financial problems... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
