Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jul.) The larger-than-expected fall in Russian inflation to 7.2% y/y in July suggests that – barring an upside surprise in this month’s CPI figure – the central bank will resume its easing cycle at the next... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech and Romanian MPCs remain in dovish mood The Romanian MPC’s press conference was a little more dovish than we had anticipated, but robust domestic demand and rising inflation mean gradual interest rate hikes still seem more likely than not... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jul.) The much sharper-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in July, to 8.8% y/y, will make it difficult for the central bank to justify any further loosening of monetary conditions. The easing cycle had... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gauging the economic hit from Turkey’s coup attempt The attempted military coup in Turkey last month doesn’t appear to have triggered a sharp decline in capital inflows, but there are already signs that the hit to confidence will cause domestic demand... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (July) July’s manufacturing PMIs point to a further slowdown in industrial production growth in Central Europe, to around 2% y/y, which could be an early sign of spillovers from the UK’s Brexit vote. However... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Recovery in EM growth pauses Our GDP Tracker suggests that the recent recovery in EM growth paused in May. Nonetheless, preliminary data from June have been more encouraging and we expect EM growth to regain some momentum over... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC pauses easing cycle, but further rate cuts loom Slightly stronger-than-expected inflation figures, coupled with the renewed fall in the ruble, prompted the Russian central bank to pause its easing cycle today, but we think inflation should resume... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Turkey coup aside, EMs have become more stable The failed military coup in Turkey has sent local financial markets into a tailspin and re-focused investors’ attention on broader EM political risk. However, political stability in emerging markets... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation in EM commodity producers remains stubbornly high Inflation in a number of EM commodity producers has remained stubbornly high over the past few months. Accordingly, consensus expectations for monetary policy in these countries have moved towards our... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (July The widespread rises in Economic Sentiment Indicators across Emerging Europe this month provide an early sign that the region’s economies have so far been unscathed by the UK’s vote to leave the EU. 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish markets start to stabilise Turkish financial markets have started to recoup some of their losses following the failed military coup earlier this month, but we think that the lira in particular is more likely to fall than to... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC could still turn to rate cuts The Hungarian MPC seemed to pour cold water on the prospect of additional monetary policy easing in the statement accompanying today’s rate-setting meeting. However, we think the Council is still too... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Turkey coup aside, EMs have become more stable The failed military coup in Turkey has sent local financial markets into a tailspin and re-focused investors’ attention on broader EM political risk. However, political stability in emerging markets... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack After the coup... The failed military coup in Turkey and subsequent government backlash have dominated investors’ concerns over the past week and triggered a sell-off in local financial markets. Policymakers have... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Putting the Turkish market sell-off into context Turkey’s financial markets have fallen sharply following Friday night’s attempted coup and the subsequent backlash by the government, but the reaction appears relatively mild given the enormity of... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC unfazed by rise in political risk The Turkish MPC’s decision to cut its overnight lending rate by a further 25bp today suggests the Council views the market volatility stemming from Friday night’s attempted coup (and growing concerns... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
