Emerging Europe Economics Update Rate cuts in Hungary could come back onto the cards The statement accompanying the Hungarian MPC’s meeting earlier today, at which the policy rate was left on hold at 0.90%, gave no sign that monetary easing is on the Council’s agenda. But we think... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC cuts rates, looks through dire inflation outlook The decision by the Turkish MPC to cut its overnight lending rate by a further 25bp, to 8.5%, provides further evidence that the Council is paying scant regard to its inflation target and more... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Lower bond yields counteract falling property yields Property yields fell again in Q2 as demand for prime property remained strong. But, with mostbond yields falling in the second quarter, property still looks fairly valued. 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul.) The weak Polish activity data for July, which point to GDP growth slowing sharply to 2.5% y/y at the start of Q3, were distorted by working-day effects. Even so, the underlying trend seems to be one... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Turnaround in industry supporting EM recovery After a prolonged downturn, there are early signs that EM industry is finally starting to turn a corner. Our measure of EM industrial production growth picked up to 2.4% y/y in June, from 2.2% in May... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) Russian activity data for July suggest that the economy weakened a touch at the start of Q3, but we still think it’s likely that the recovery will resume over the rest of the year. Indeed, there was... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q2) The slightly stronger-than-expected Czech Q2 GDP growth figure, of 2.5% y/y, reinforces our view that, while the economy is likely to slow a little further in the coming quarters, the strength of... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2016) The surprisingly strong batch of Q2 GDP figures for Central and South Eastern Europe released today suggest that growth in the region as a whole picked up to a robust 3.7% y/y from 3.0% y/y in Q1. We... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2016) The -0.6% y/y fall in Russia GDP in Q2 is, by our estimates, consistent with a modest rise in output over the quarter. We expect a gradual recovery to continue over the coming quarters. 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2016) The -0.6% y/y fall in Russia GDP in Q2 is, by our estimates, consistent with a modest rise in output over the quarter. We expect a gradual recovery to continue over the coming quarters. 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor A pause, not a reversal, in recovery of EM exports The slightly faster decline in EM exports recorded in June compared to May was due to price and currency effects that should prove short-lived. The recovery will continue over the coming months. 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Moscow property about to turn a corner, albeit, slowly The acute phase of Russia’s latest economic crisis now appears to be behind it. However, the prospect of only a weak economic recovery means that a strong rebound of the Moscow commercial property... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 GDP figures likely to show pick-up in Central Europe Preliminary Q2 GDP figures for Emerging Europe due later this week are likely to show an encouraging uptick in growth in Central Europe. Meanwhile, output in the region’s largest economy, Russia... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul.) Our Tracker shows that capital outflows from the emerging world eased in July, suggesting that the pick-up in outflows seen in June was just a blip. The big picture is that they have fallen... 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jun.) The weaker-than-expected Turkish industrial production growth figure for June, of just 1.1% y/y, adds to the evidence that the economy had slowed sharply even before July’s coup attempt. 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s labour market is hiding slack Russia’s unemployment rate has hardly budged despite the deep economic downturn over the past 18 months. There does, however, appear to be “hidden” slack in the labour market, one implication of which... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
