Emerging Markets Economics Focus

EM financial risk – An early warning system

The past few years have sharpened investors’ focus on assessing risks and vulnerabilities across the EM world. We have developed a comprehensive suite of indicators to identify early signs of a...

20th March 2024 · 17 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.)

The Czech National Bank cut its policy rate by 50bp again today, to 5.75%, and we think that it will continue easing policy throughout 2024. Our forecast for interest rates to fall to 3.50% by the end...

20th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2024)

Capital inflows into EMs have picked up in recent weeks on the back of an improvement in risk appetite. This may set the tone for the rest of the year, particularly once the Fed begins to cut interest...

18th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Putin 5.0: what to look out for now

Vladimir Putin secured a record victory in Russia’s presidential election over the weekend. The focus now will be on whether this emboldens Putin to devote more resources to the war effort, whether...

18th March 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Tightening in Turkey, CNB holds onto its hawkishness

Pressures on Turkish policymakers are building ahead of the local elections on 31st March as capital inflows have slowed and FX reserves are falling again. We doubt the central bank will hike interest...

15th March 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM growth divergence set to continue

We expect the divergence in growth prospects observed in EM Q4 GDP data to be a running theme over the next couple of quarters too. Specifically, we think that some of last year’s outperformers...

14th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Feb.)

The rise in Russian inflation to 7.7% y/y in February highlights that price pressures in the economy remain strong and we think inflation is likely to increase further in the coming months. We doubt...

13th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Three key stories from Turkey's balance of payments

Turkey’s balance of payments figures for January showed that the current account deficit continued to narrow, but the drop in capital inflows in recent months is a concern and it appears that this...

12th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

HUF struggles, Russia’s election coming into view

The dispute between the Hungarian central bank and the government heated up further this week, which has fuelled a narrative that threats to central bank independence are responsible for the recent...

8th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Focus

Russia: what to watch under Putin 5.0

The outcome of Russia’s presidential election taking place over 15-17 th March is not in doubt: Putin is all but certain to secure a fifth term until 2030. But the election still has significance...

7th March 2024 · 21 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.)

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold again today, at 5.75%, and the scope for monetary easing this year looks relatively limited. We still think there is a possibility that a...

6th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Drop back in office completions to support prime rents

Completions in Europe are set to increase over the next year or so as construction delays unwind, which will contribute to rising vacancy. However, we expect the upward pressure from supply to ease...

5th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.)

The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation to 67.1% y/y in February adds to our concerns given that it comes on the back of a large increase in inflation in January and the strength of...

4th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Is Turkey’s economy getting the medicine it needs?

The unexpected re-acceleration in Turkish GDP growth in Q4 challenges the view that aggressive monetary tightening delivered over the second half of last year is rebalancing the economy. If inflation...

1st March 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.)

The manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally ticked up last month, but still suggest that industrial sectors remained weak. In contrast, the increases in the PMIs in Turkey...

1st March 2024 · 2 mins read