Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q2) The sharper-than-expected slowdown in Turkish GDP growth in Q2, to 3.1% y/y, predates July’s coup attempt and we expect growth to be much weaker in the coming quarters. Indeed, the early signs suggest... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world edged up to around $42bn in August from $38bn in July, but they remain well below their peak at the turn of the year. And inflows... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jul.) The collapse in Turkish industrial production in July provides a clear sign that the coup attempt caused severe disruptions to the economy. And leading indicators such as the manufacturing PMI suggest... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Aug.) The fall in Russian inflation to 6.9% y/y in August, coming alongside last month’s drop in household inflation expectations, reinforces our view that the central bank will resume its easing cycle... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Aug.) The sharper-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in August, to 8.0% y/y, is likely to be used as justification by the central bank for further modest interest rate cuts. Nonetheless, we remain of... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery pauses in August The EM manufacturing PMI dropped back in August, but we aren’t too concerned: the fall was relatively modest and the survey remains well above its level a few months ago. What’s more, there are... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The latest batch of PMIs from Emerging Europe suggests that, in aggregate, the region’s manufacturing sector strengthened last month. But the surveys provide further evidence that Turkey’s economy has... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian markets come under pressure once again It’s been a very calm month for financial markets in most of Emerging Europe. One exception, however, is Ukraine where renewed tensions with Russia have caused the currency to weaken and dollar bond... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Recovery resumes Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that, after a brief pause in May, the recovery in EM growth resumed in June. The latest improvement has been driven by a pick-up in activity in Emerging Asia and Latin... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) The declines in the Economic Sentiment Indicators this month in Central and Eastern Europe support our view that growth in these economies is likely to weaken in the coming quarters. But the strength... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Industrial rents in Emerging Europe stabilise Stronger economic growth in Q2 helped to prevent further falls in the majority of prime retail and industrial rents across the central and eastern European region. Rents may, therefore, have found a... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM food inflation to edge down, but it won’t collapse We expect food inflation in large parts of the EM world to ease in the coming months, which will provide some relief to policymakers in a number of high inflation economies, including Russia, Colombia... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Some signs of a slowdown at the start of Q3 The raft of second quarter GDP figures for Emerging Europe released this month painted a relatively bright picture, as regional growth hit a two-year high of 1.5% y/y. However, some of the more timely... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Political tensions come to the fore Political tensions have re-emerged in a number of frontier market economies in recent weeks, casting a shadow over the economic outlook. The outcome of the recent presidential election in Zambia has... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Should we be concerned about EM equities again? We continue to expect emerging market (EM) equities to rise further in the next couple of years, even as the Fed tightens monetary policy. But the rally has fizzled out in recent days, and we suspect... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional recovery to disappoint, rates to come down Growth across Emerging Europe is likely to pick up in 2017-18, but it will be softer than most anticipate. While the region’s largest economy, Russia, will return to positive growth in the coming... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
