Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC looks through rising inflation… for now The press release accompanying the Hungarian MPC’s meeting earlier today remained dovish, but we think the Council is probably underestimating how quickly inflation will rise in the second half of... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update February’s drop in EM inflation mainly a China story EM inflation fell sharply last month but this was driven almost entirely by a New Year-related drop in food inflation in China. This will reverse in March, meaning aggregate EM inflation is likely to... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation jumps, but no rush to tighten The jump in inflation across much of Emerging Europe last month has shifted the focus onto policy tightening. But in most cases this has been a one-off rise from higher fuel inflation, and there is... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will EMs pick up the free-trade mantle? There is growing speculation that the largest EMs might step up to fill the void left by the US in the event of a protectionist shift under President Trump. However, there are good reasons why intra... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Feb.) February’s weak batch of Russian activity data were distorted by working-day effects, and we think the underlying picture is still one of a gradual recovery. 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook A regional rebound The economies of Emerging Europe have made a good start to the year and we expect growth to pick up further in the coming quarters. The recovery in the region’s largest economy, Russia, is likely to... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to expect from Turkey’s constitutional referendum The focus ahead of Turkey’s constitutional referendum, taking place in a month’s time, has been on the political ramifications, but relatively little has been said about the economic impact. Our sense... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) Last month’s PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that in aggregate, the region’s manufacturing sector weakened from January, but it remained strong. The surveys from Central Europe were robust and point... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) In aggregate, February’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were a little weaker than in January, but overall they add to the impression that the region’s economies made a... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Signs of improvement in frontier economies The recent improvement in the global economic backdrop has been mirrored by a pick-up in growth across frontier markets. National accounts data released by early-reporting frontiers over the past... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rallies in ruble and lira lack strong foundations The Russian ruble and Turkish lira have been among the best performing EM currencies this month, but we don’t think their rallies will be sustained. It seems most likely that the ruble will settle... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A strong start to the year The latest data suggest that the economies of Emerging Europe got off to a good start to the year. Our regional aggregates of the manufacturing PMIs and the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What do Russia’s revised industrial data tell us? Revisions to Russia’s industrial production data, which show that the manufacturing sector’s performance in 2015-16 was much better than previously thought, mean it now looks like the economy returned... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Property yield gaps squeezed by rising bond yields Bond yields increased in Q4 and have generally climbed further since. This has meant that, despite a counter-balancing effect from lower equity dividend yields, property yields have begun to look... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2016) Growth in Central and South Eastern Europe strengthened at the end of last year on the back of an acceleration in Poland and Romania. Nonetheless, we see little in today’s GDP data to change our view... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Recent recovery likely to prove a false dawn Financial markets in the emerging world have maintained their strong start to the year. But we don’t expect this to be sustained, as the Fed resumes its tightening and geo-political uncertainty... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
