Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC shifts focus to growth The Turkish MPC’s decision to cut its overnight lending rate by a further 25bp was accompanied by a clear shift in the Council’s focus to concerns about the economic slowdown. This provides even more... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech koruna not likely to see sharp gains when cap lifted Despite growing views to the contrary, it’s not clear to us that the Czech koruna will appreciate sharply as and when the National Bank exits the exchange rate “cap” policy. 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM central banks remain in easing mode Emerging market policymakers have been in loosening mode in recent months, with our EM interest rate diffusion index showing that more EM central banks cut rates than hiked again in August. Rate cuts... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary upgraded but bond rally limited The rally in Hungary’s financial markets following its return to investment grade last Friday has grabbed the headlines, but in practice most of the fall in its dollar bond spreads happened in 2012-14... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontiers turn to international bond markets An increasing number of frontier markets are turning to the international bond markets as they look to paper over the cracks in their finances. Argentina got the ball rolling earlier this year when it... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary MPC’s deposit facility tweaks may do less than billed The decision by the Hungarian MPC to limit the use of its three-month deposit facility has been signalled as an effort to loosen monetary conditions, but recent experience suggests that it’s unlikely... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tight fiscal policy to stifle recoveries in commodity producers The majority of governments in commodity-producing EMs are still in the process of adjusting to the new reality of lower commodity prices and are being forced to cut spending. Accordingly, while... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) Russian activity data for August suggest that the economy continued to pull out of its slump, albeit very slowly. The recovery is still being driven by industry, but there are no signs of improvement... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Aug.) The sharp improvement in last month’s Polish activity data will ease concerns of a slowdown sparked by July’s weak figures. Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth picked up to around 3.0% y/y last month... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update United Russia’s election victory reinforces Putin’s grip on power The sweeping victory for United Russia in Sunday’s parliamentary vote reinforces the view that President Putin’s grip on power hasn’t been shaken by two years of recession. The direction of policy is... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish Russian MPC still likely to cut The surprisingly hawkish comments by the Russian central bank Governor at this afternoon’s post-MPC meeting press-conference mean that policy easing is likely to be more gradual than we previously... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q3 2016) Emerging market consumer spending growth appears to have bottomed out in recent quarters, but the subsequent recovery will be slow going. While the immediate outlook is brightest in Emerging Asia and... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM economies now less vulnerable to US rate hikes The sudden sell-off in EMs that started on Friday, triggered by hawkish comments from the head of the Boston Fed Eric Rosengreen, points to a turbulent period ahead for EM financial markets as the... 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Softer rental growth outlook will be offset by further yield compression In the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU, central banks have signalled a looser monetary policy stance ahead. Nevertheless, we expect economic growth to be weaker, which has led us to reduce our... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports stumble, but recovery will continue We think that one-off disruptions explain most of the fall in EM exports in July. More timely data already suggest that EM export growth was stronger in August. 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation expectations aren’t a barrier to rate cuts in Russia Russia’s Central Bank has put increasing emphasis on the importance of inflation expectations in making monetary policy decisions, but it seems that these tend to be a lagging, rather than a leading... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
