Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Turkey’s economy will struggle The hit to Turkey’s economy from July’s military coup attempt is likely to be short-lived, but even once the impact dissipates, the economy’s large vulnerabilities mean activity will remain sluggish... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC talks of rate hikes, but policy to remain loose Today’s data from the Halifax showed that house prices were more or less flat on the month in September. Therefore, it echoes the evidence provided by other indices that house prices have proved... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus The consequences of Turkey’s inflation problem There is mounting evidence that the Turkish central bank’s pursuit of loose monetary policy has caused inflation expectations to become unanchored, risking an upward wage-price spiral. As we explain... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Sep.) The larger-than-expected fall in Russian inflation to 6.4% y/y in September is unlikely to have any impact on the outlook for monetary policy over the rest of this year, but it does reinforce our view... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery continued in Q3 The EM manufacturing PMIs for September suggest that industry across the emerging world performed better in Q3 than in Q2. That said, the index remains consistent with relatively weak growth in... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Warsaw retail rents enjoying a purple patch A solid and strengthening outlook for the Polish consumer sector will keep demand for prime retail units buoyant over the next couple of years. This will enable prime retail rents in Warsaw to grow by... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) & Turkey CPI (Sep.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that Russia’s gradual recovery continued at the end of Q3, while growth in Central Europe was relatively strong. Elsewhere, the sharper-than-expected fall in... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian rate hikes coming onto the agenda Comments by the Romanian National Bank Governor at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference suggest that the MPC is inching towards starting a tightening cycle, reinforcing our view that the... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor A temporary pause in the EM recovery Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that, after accelerating for most of this year, EM growth was unchanged in July. We think that this pause in the EM recovery should prove to be temporary and we continue to... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC signals mid-2017 CZK cap exit, rates to stay near zero The Czech MPC’s post-meeting press conference reinforced our view that it will lift the exchange rate ceiling around the middle of next year. We think it’s unlikely that the koruna will strengthen... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor China still towards the top of EM worry list Our CERI suggests that financial risks for the average EM are the lowest in over 20 years. Even so, there are pockets of vulnerability. The CERI is flashing warning signs in Egypt, Colombia, Venezuela... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The widespread rises in this month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) in Central and Eastern Europe should help to ease concerns about the region’s economic health following a run of weak hard... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Turkish downgrade highlights deteriorating investor outlook The decision by Moody’s to downgrade Turkey’s credit rating to non-investment grade comes at a time when investment in Turkish commercial property is struggling. Given a worsening economic and... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How much of a concern are Russia’s public finances? The fall in oil prices has caused a considerable deterioration in Russia’s budget position, forcing the government to dip into its oil reserves. In this Update, we answer six key questions on the... 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM-wide inflation drops to seven-year low EM inflation is now at a seven-year low. Looking ahead, it is set to ease further in most major commodity producing EMs over the coming months, providing central banks with room to cut interest rates. 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turkish downgrade puts economic slowdown in spotlight Moody’s downgrade of Turkey’s sovereign credit rating this month and the loss of the country’s investment grade status caused a small and short-lived sell-off in local financial markets, but perhaps... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
