Emerging Europe Chart Pack Further signs of regional slowdown The past month brought further signs of a slowdown in regional growth in Q3. Turkey is the main culprit. Growth there appears to have slowed to a crawl following July’s coup attempt, which hit... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports recover as commodity prices stabilise South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell dramatically last month. The sharp fall in the measure of future conditions suggests that hopes of a swift improvement in the country’s economic and political... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What might derail our European property yield forecasts? The prevailing view is that European property yields have essentially reached their trough. But we disagree and have pencilled in falls of 40bps from here. Nevertheless, it is prudent to ask what... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Political risks take toll on lira and leu Domestic political risks have taken a toll on Emerging Europe’s two worst performing currencies – the Turkish lira and Romanian leu – over the past month. For the lira, in particular, we think... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in lira brings Turkish easing cycle to an end The Turkish MPC didn’t rule out a resumption of its easing cycle following the surprise decision to leave interest rates unchanged today, but for our part we think that further falls in the lira and... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) Activity data for September suggest that the Russian recovery may have stalled in the third quarter, which was largely the result of weakness in the industrial sector. Overall, we think that GDP... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep.) The weaker-than-anticipated batch of Polish activity data for September were by no means a disaster, and the figures suggest overall GDP growth edged down to around 2.8% over Q3 as a whole, compared... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of the surge in EM foreign currency debt sales Sovereign foreign currency bond sales by emerging markets could top $100bn this year although, outside a couple of vulnerable countries, it seems unlikely that these will cause future debt problems. 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world eased a little last month, and they remain well below the levels seen earlier in the year. 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Ukraine’s recent recovery Ukraine’s economy has seen rare good news over the past month as the IMF released additional funding after a long delay and recent data showed that growth strengthened. Nonetheless, there has been no... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The end of the Golden Age Widespread expectations for a sustained rebound in emerging market growth after the slowdown of recent years will be disappointed. The 2000s were a transient “Golden Age” for the emerging world, with... 13th October 2016 · 20 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Aug.) A decline in tourism receipts caused Turkey’s current account deficit to widen further on a 12-month basis in August and ongoing security concerns will keep tourism revenues subdued and the external... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Political risks hit Mexican peso and South African rand The Mexican peso and South African rand have been buffetted by political developments in recent weeks, as Donald Trump continued to take aim at Mexico and South Africa’s Finance Minister was charged... 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Aug.) Turkish industrial production rebounded in August, after July’s slump, but the bigger picture is that growth weakened over the first two months of Q3 and September’s manufacturing PMI suggests that... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Prague offices at a turning point? The current sweet spot for Prague office occupier demand isn’t likely to last for long. Next year will see vast levels of new completions alongside a slowdown in demand growth. Nevertheless, we expect... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Recovery to grind on Economies across the emerging world have strengthened so far this year and we expect further improvements in the months ahead. But growth is likely to peak in 2017 at rates far below the averages of... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
