Global Markets Update What next for EM currencies? Emerging market currencies have been one of the major casualties of the global sell-off since the November 8th US elections. Some, including the Turkish lira and South African rand, are likely to... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trump and the fallout for EMs in five key points We’ve written lots over the past two weeks about Donald Trump’s victory and the implications for EMs. While much remains uncertain, in this Update we draw out five early takeaways. 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Stuck in the slow lane Having slowed in Q3, we expect growth in Emerging Europe to recover over the course of the next year as Russia continues to pull out of recession and investment in the Central European economies... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM markets stabilise after post-Trump sell-off Financial markets across the emerging world have stabilised following an initial sell-off in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election earlier this month. This partly reflects... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Oct.) The weaker-than-expected batch of Polish activity data for October suggests that the economy remained sluggish at the start of Q4. Our GDP Tracker points to growth of 2.7% y/y last month, only a touch... 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Oct.) October’s activity data showed that the Russian economy’s slow recovery continued at the start of Q4, driven by improvements in industry. But the fresh downturn in retail spending confirmed that... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will EM dollar-denominated bonds continue to underperform? Dollar-denominated government bonds have suffered disproportionately during the emerging market sell-off since Donald Trump won the US presidential election. We expect dollar-denominated bonds to... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM exports after the Golden Era Last month, we published a Focus outlining why we think the golden era for EM growth has passed and why the emerging world is set for structurally weaker growth. In this Focus, we explain why the same... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trumpflation, the dollar and EM balance sheets The jump in the dollar caused by the so-called “Trumpflation” trade is unlikely to cause widespread or systemic problems in the emerging world, but several EMs do look vulnerable. The most exposed are... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Tepid recovery for EM trade as protectionist threats mount The year-on-year contraction in EM trade growth seen in recent years is easing as values stabilise. But trade growth will not return to the rapid rates seen before 2012. A move towards protectionism... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2016) The weaker-than-expected preliminary Q3 GDP figures for Central and South Eastern Europe support our view that growth in the region is likely to settle at a more moderate pace of 2.5-3.0% y/y in the... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3 2016) The 0.4% y/y contraction in Russia GDP in Q3 appears to be consistent, by our estimates, with a shallow fall in GDP in q/q terms. We do, however, expect the economy to return to positive (albeit... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Picking apart the post-Trump sell-off The sell-off in EM markets following Donald Trump’s victory appears to have been driven by a general rise in investor risk aversion, rather than specific concerns over a shift towards greater trade... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to expect from the Q3 GDP data The batch of preliminary Q3 GDP figures due next week in Emerging Europe is likely to make fairly disappointing reading. While growth in Central Europe probably remained strong, we think it still... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world declined a little last month, and were barely a third of the size seen earlier in the year. The sell-off in EM financial markets... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Taking stock of the reaction to Trump Financial markets in Mexico have slumped since Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election was confirmed on Wednesday, but losses in many other emerging markets (EMs) have so far not been... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
