Europe Commercial Property Update Bucharest industrial rents have further to rise Contrary to popular belief, we think that it has been the strength of the domestic economy, rather than firms relocating to Romania on cost grounds, which has caused prime Bucharest industrial rents... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central & South Eastern Europe: Q3 slowdown was broad-based The recently-released breakdowns of Q3 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe showed that most major expenditure components weakened, although there was still some encouraging news at a country... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Nov.) The further fall in Russian inflation last month, to 5.8% y/y, won’t be enough to prompt the central bank to resume its easing cycle at the rate-setting meeting next week. Nonetheless, we think the... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What higher and lower oil prices would mean for Russia The volatility in oil prices over the past couple of months has prompted clients to ask us how higher and lower oil prices could affect the outlook for Russia’s economy. In this Focus, we use several... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key calls for EMs in 2017 Far from being the catastrophe that many had expected 2016 was – as we anticipated – a year of stabilisation and recovery for many emerging markets. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Nov.) The surprise fall in Turkish inflation in November means that, at the margin, it looks less likely that the MPC will follow up last month’s interest rate hike with another this month. Nonetheless... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook CEE yields to fall faster and for longer As in the euro-zone, monetary policy is set to stay loose in the rest of Europe keeping real estate attractive. That said, the current phase of falling yields is set to end in 2019 in Western European... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMI remains near two-year high The EM manufacturing PMI edged down in November, but still suggests that conditions in manufacturing sectors are much healthier than a few months ago. Emerging Europe, in particular, appears to have... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) Last month’s PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that growth in the region’s manufacturing sector strengthened between Q3 and Q4. At a country level, the surveys suggest that Russia’s recovery is... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian markets outperform after Trump victory Hopes that Donald Trump’s election victory will bring about the end of economic and financial sanctions on Russia caused the country’s financial markets to outperform those in other emerging markets... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turkey’s vulnerabilities come home to roost The risks posed by Turkey’s heavy dependence on foreign capital inflows came to a head this month, with the lira falling the furthest of any EM currency in November. This has been driven in part by... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation in EM commodity producers will continue to ease Inflation in most commodity-producing EMs will continue to edge down over the coming months as the effects of previous currency falls unwind. This will allow policymakers in almost all of these... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM recovery grinds on Our GDP Tracker suggests that the EM recovery has continued in recent months, driven in large part by a strong rebound in China’s economy. This has a bit further to run but we think the recovery will... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) The batch of strong Economic Sentiment Indicators across Central and Eastern Europe this month suggests that GDP growth in the region as a whole recovered in Q4. But while the aggregate picture... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations still favour EM equities over US$ bonds Yields of emerging market (EM) dollar-denominated bonds have risen since the US elections, but are still generally lower than the forward earnings yields of equities. This is one reason why we believe... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier financial markets sell off, but losses limited Frontier financial markets came under pressure in the wake of Donald Trump’s US election victory, with currencies weakening against the dollar and bond yields rising. The losses have been relatively... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
