Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) October’s manufacturing PMI for Turkey – which fell to a six-month low – supports our view that following an impressive Q3, growth will slow in Q4. Elsewhere in the region, the Czech PMI painted a... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth at multi-year high in August Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM growth picked up to its fastest pace in four-and-a-half years in August. However, there are some early signs that EM growth will ease over the coming months. 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further downside for the Turkish lira The Turkish lira has strengthened a little today, but it has been the worst-performing major EM currency this month. We have revisited our forecasts and we now expect further falls in the currency... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) This month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators suggest that GDP growth remained strong in the major economies of Central and Eastern Europe at the start of Q4. The surveys are consistent with growth... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth peaking Growth in Emerging Europe probably picked up further in Q3, but we think that this will mark the peak in the economic cycle and expect aggregate regional growth to weaken a little next year... 23rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Consumer recovery strengthens The latest economic data suggest that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3 and one of the main drivers behind this appears to have been stronger consumer spending. Retail sales... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Will EM currencies withstand the Fed? After a big rally earlier in the year, emerging market (EM) currencies have weakened against the dollar recently as US rate expectations have picked up. We doubt that much larger falls are around the... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A look ahead to the Czech elections The centre-right ANO is likely to emerge as the single largest party in Friday’s parliamentary election in the Czech Republic, which may open the door to looser fiscal policy. That said, there are... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Nearing the cyclical peak Economic growth looks set to strengthen in most EMs over the next year, but the cycle is now close to peaking in China and parts of Central and Eastern Europe. 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing still in decent shape The latest Markit PMI surveys suggest that conditions in emerging market manufacturing eased a touch at the end of Q3, but remain robust compared with the past few years. 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of our forecasts Growth in Emerging Europe has generally surprised on the upside in recent quarters, which is consistent with the above-consensus forecasts we made at the start of this year. We expect further positive... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe painted a positive picture. The surveys suggest that economic growth accelerated further in Q3 in Central Europe and remained robust in Russia. Even... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) This month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional GDP may have expanded by as much as 5% y/y in Q3. However, this probably marks the peak for growth and... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Oil price jump fails to lift markets in oil exporters The jump in oil prices, from $51pb at the start of September to around $59pb at the time of writing, should provide a fillip to the large frontier oil economies, such as Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish equities tumble amid Kurdish referendum fears Worries about spillovers from the independence referendum being held today in Iraq’s Kurdish region have led to a sharp drop in Turkey’s stock market over the past week. However, any impact on Turkey... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation picks up from eight-year low Aggregate EM inflation rebounded in August, having fallen to an eight-year low in July. But while we expect fuel and food inflation to edge up over the coming months, easing core price pressures... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
