Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing ends 2016 on a strong note Manufacturing in the emerging world remained strong at the end of last year according to the latest PMIs. Conditions in China and Russia, in particular, continued to improve. That being said, the... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Dec.) The surprisingly sharp rise in Turkish inflation in December, to 8.5% y/y, was due mainly to a jump in food and energy inflation, although the weakness of the lira is also feeding through into higher... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Interest rates in Hungary to stay at record lows through 2017 The press release accompanying the Hungarian MPC’s meeting earlier today suggests that the Council thinks the need for additional monetary easing has diminished. As a result, we have taken the very... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update C&SEE banks in better shape, but concerns about Turkey The health of banking sectors in Central and South Eastern Europe (C&SEE) has improved significantly in recent years. And they are now much less exposed to a fresh eruption of financial stress in the... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rising oil prices support Russia market rally The rise in oil prices following the agreement by OPEC and other oil producers to cut output has helped Russian equities and the ruble to outperform for the second consecutive month. Elsewhere, Polish... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia & Poland Activity Data (Nov.) November’s relatively strong Russian activity data were flattered by working-day effects, but they still suggest that the economy is nearing a return to positive growth. Elsewhere, a healthy batch of... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian easing cycle to be larger than most expect in 2017 The Russian central bank’s post-meeting press conference provided the firmest signs yet that the easing cycle will resume next year. Governor Nabiullina’s comment that Q2 was the most likely time for... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Ending the year with a whimper Most economies in Emerging Europe enjoyed a strong first half of 2016, but regional growth has slowed sharply over the second half of the year. Q3 GDP data showed that the Turkish economy suffered an... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM markets regain their poise, but risks remain Financial markets in the emerging world have generally stabilised since the initial shock of Donald Trump’s election victory last month. But with Trump yet to take office, investors are likely to... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update End of sanctions would give small but short-lived boost to Russia Today’s news that Donald Trump has nominated Rex Tillerson to be Secretary of State has clearly increased the chances that US sanctions on Russia will be lifted in the coming years. Were that to... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Fed tightening unlikely to cause major problems for EMs Our proprietary indicator of EM financial risk remains close to a 13-year low, which should help to reassure anyone concerned about a spate of crises across the emerging world in 2017. In particular... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey slumps in Q3, growth to stay weaker than most expect The much-sharper-than-expected 1.8% y/y contraction in Turkish GDP in Q3 probably marks the low point of the economy’s coup-induced slump. Nonetheless, the data reinforce our view that most analysts... 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world reached a ten-month high of $75bn last month. This was driven mainly by an acceleration in outflows from China, but it seems that... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian election likely to trigger further fiscal loosening Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world reached a ten-month high of $75bn last month. This was driven mainly by an acceleration in outflows from China, but it seems that... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three questions (and answers) on Russia’s Rosneft sale The Russian government’s sale of part of its stake in Rosneft to the Qatar Investment Authority and Glencore late yesterday has raised questions about what the deal means for sanctions, the currency... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rates likely to stay on hold through 2017-18 Comments by Polish National Bank Governor, Adam Glapinski, at this afternoon’s post-meeting conference support our view that interest rates will be left unchanged next year, not hiked as the markets... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
