Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Turkey really now a high-investment economy? The large upwards revisions to Turkey’s investment rate don’t mean the economy’s growth prospects are now much stronger. The changes mainly appear to reflect the country’s residential property boom... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) January’s Economic Sentiment Indicators in Central and Eastern Europe suggest that most economies in the region made a strong start to this year. In particular, today’s data support our view that... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM dollar debt – a primer The recent strength of the US dollar has prompted several questions from clients about dollar debt burdens in emerging economies. In this Update, we outline the key points and provide a comprehensive... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) Russia’s construction and retail sectors suffered a fresh slump in December but, overall, it looks like the economy expanded in year-on-year terms in Q4 (by around 0.3%) for the first time since 2014. 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian rates to remain at record lows this year The Hungarian MPC kept its policy interest rate unchanged earlier today and the accompanying statement remained dovish in spite of a jump in inflation at the end of 2016. Looking ahead, with growth... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s tightening cycle has further to run Today’s interest rate hike by the Turkish central bank was just large enough to buy support for the lira, but we think further hikes in the key policy rates will, ultimately, be needed in the coming... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Focus turns to policy tightening The sharp fall in the Turkish lira has forced the central bank to tinker with its monetary policy setup in an effort to shore up the currency, and we think hikes in key policy interest rates loom... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech koruna: when will cap be lifted and how far will CZK rise? We think it is most likely that the Czech MPC will remove the koruna ceiling at its meeting on 4th May. Following this, we are forecasting that the koruna will appreciate to 25.5/€ from 27/€ at... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) Polish activity data for December suggest that GDP growth over Q4 as a whole came in at 2.3% y/y, down a touch from 2.5% y/y in Q3. 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil prices to push CEE inflation higher over Q1 Higher oil prices led to sharp rises in inflation across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) at the end of 2016, and this has further to run in the next few months. All in all, oil prices are likely to... 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing Turkish balance sheet risks from the fall in the lira The plunge in the lira doesn’t, so far, appear to have resulted in significant balance sheet strains, but the rapid rise in private sector FX liabilities suggests that this is still a risk. At the... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Bright start to 2017 unlikely to last Financial markets in the emerging world have generally made a bright start to 2017, but we doubt their recent good form will continue given the large amount of uncertainty regarding the global... 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The latest fall in the lira and what it means for Turkish rates On past form, the latest fall in the Turkish lira appears to be sufficiently large to trigger an interest rate hike at this month’s MPC meeting. If the Council doesn’t act, that will only reinforce... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian tightening cycle to be more aggressive than most expect The accompanying statement to today’s MPC meeting in Romania was less hawkish than we had expected. Nonetheless, with further fiscal stimulus in the pipeline and economic slack now exhausted... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) The batch of relatively strong Economic Sentiment Indicators across Central and Eastern Europe in December suggests that, after a disappointing third quarter, GDP growth in the region recovered in Q4. 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Unpacking “political risk” in EMs The tendency to bracket all EM political risk under the banner of “rising populism” conceals important nuances and prevents a proper understanding of the economic consequences of the risks that are... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
