Emerging Europe Economics Update Rallies in ruble and lira lack strong foundations The Russian ruble and Turkish lira have been among the best performing EM currencies this month, but we don’t think their rallies will be sustained. It seems most likely that the ruble will settle... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A strong start to the year The latest data suggest that the economies of Emerging Europe got off to a good start to the year. Our regional aggregates of the manufacturing PMIs and the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What do Russia’s revised industrial data tell us? Revisions to Russia’s industrial production data, which show that the manufacturing sector’s performance in 2015-16 was much better than previously thought, mean it now looks like the economy returned... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Property yield gaps squeezed by rising bond yields Bond yields increased in Q4 and have generally climbed further since. This has meant that, despite a counter-balancing effect from lower equity dividend yields, property yields have begun to look... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2016) Growth in Central and South Eastern Europe strengthened at the end of last year on the back of an acceleration in Poland and Romania. Nonetheless, we see little in today’s GDP data to change our view... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Recent recovery likely to prove a false dawn Financial markets in the emerging world have maintained their strong start to the year. But we don’t expect this to be sustained, as the Fed resumes its tightening and geo-political uncertainty... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian rates to rise further than many expect The fairly hawkish post-meeting press conference and upwards revisions to the central bank’s inflation forecasts suggest that the Romanian MPC is increasingly concerned about the prospect of loose... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jan.) The further fall in Russian inflation last month, to 5.0% y/y, supports our view that, despite the central bank’s recent hawkish rhetoric, interest rates will be lowered substantially this year. 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank takes hawkish turn, but cuts on the cards The hawkish statement by the Central Bank of Russia that accompanied today’s decision to leave the policy rate on hold has prompted us to revise up our end-year interest rate forecast (to 8.25%... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jan.) The sharp rise in Turkish inflation last month, to 9.2% y/y, was due largely to higher petrol and food inflation. The impact of the weaker lira on core inflation has been surprisingly muted so far. At... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish statement suggests Czech koruna policy to end soon The upwards revisions to the Czech National Bank’s inflation forecasts and the relatively hawkish post-meeting press conference reinforce our view that the Council’s koruna cap policy will end fairly... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Dissecting Russia’s new fiscal rule Russia’s new “fiscal rule”, which takes effect this week, is unusual insofar as it governs how the budget deficit is financed, rather than anchoring either the size of the deficit or the scale of... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2016) The preliminary estimate of Russian 2016 GDP, which showed a small contraction of 0.2% over the year as a whole, was a bit better than expected and is consistent with the idea that the economy... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) Last month’s PMIs for Emerging Europe indicate that the region’s manufacturing sectors made an impressive start to the year. The surveys suggest that industrial production growth in Central Europe... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Signs of life in Brazil and Russia Our GDP Tracker suggests that the EM GDP growth has continued to accelerate in recent months and is now running at its fastest pace in two years. While the recovery is still being driven by China... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish lira caught in the crosshairs The sharp fall in the Turkish lira already this year, and the disappointing response by the central bank, have prompted us to revise our currency forecast down. We now see it ending the year at 4.00/$... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
