Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Mar.)

The increase in Turkish inflation, to 68.5% y/y in March, will keep pressure on the central bank to hike interest rates further at its meeting later this month. We maintain our forecast for a 250bp...

3rd April 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

PMIs show that EM industry continues to strengthen

The rise in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI to a three-year high in March was largely driven by strength in Asian industry, with activity elsewhere weaker. While slower growth in DMs should weigh...

2nd April 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Turkey election: AKP defeat = good news for investors

The strong showing for the opposition in Turkey’s local elections on Sunday highlights the extent of voter frustration with high inflation and we think that it should be interpreted as a positive for...

2nd April 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.)

The manufacturing PMIs rose across Central and Eastern Europe in March but they remain consistent with a relatively weak recovery.

2nd April 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

MNB easing to slow further, Turkey election preview

The post-meeting communications from Hungary’s central bank (MNB) this week support our view that the pace of interest rate cuts will slow even further over the coming months. Meanwhile, Turkey’s...

28th March 2024 · 10 mins read

Global Economic Outlook

On course for a soft landing

In the quarters ahead, economic activity in most of the world will be characterised by soft landings. We expect GDP growth to be below trend, but meaningful recessions should be avoided and the US...

28th March 2024 · 45 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 24)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation continued to fall across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) last month and in most...

27th March 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.)

The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe generally rose in March, and support our view that regional GDP growth strengthened at the start of this year.

27th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economic Outlook

Overheating in Russia and Turkey, recoveries in CEE

Economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) ended last year in stagnation, but headwinds to growth are lifting and we think that 2024 will be a year of modest recovery. Inflation has fallen sharply...

26th March 2024 · 22 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.)

The decision by the Hungarian central bank to slow the pace of its easing cycle today, with a 75bp cut to its base rate (to 8.25%) will probably be followed by a further slowdown in the pace of the...

26th March 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Tusk’s first 100 days, CBRT’s pre-election surprise

The new Polish government (which marks its 100 day milestone today) has successfully unblocked EU funds and delivered a wave of optimism that has helped Poland's financial markets outperform those in...

22nd March 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (March 2024)

GDP growth will come in below consensus in most EMs this year, with the notable exceptions of India and Taiwan. Although stubborn wage growth means the pace of disinflation is likely to slow from here...

22nd March 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.)

Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its key policy rate on hold, at 16.00%, for a second consecutive meeting as expected today and there were few notable changes in its press statement. The central bank...

22nd March 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

Further value falls to come, but should reach trough in H2

Further near-term yield rises will push property values lower in the coming quarters, but better valuations, falling interest rates and improving economic activity suggest a trough should be reached...

21st March 2024 · 31 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.)

Turkey’s central bank unexpectedly raised its key policy rate by 500bp at today’s meeting, to 50.00%, and its hawkish communications leave open the possibility of another rate hike in April. With the...

21st March 2024 · 2 mins read