Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) The improvement in the Russian activity data for March confirmed that the slump shown in the February figures was a blip. That said, weakness earlier in the quarter means that year-on-year GDP growth... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Political risks don’t warrant major growth revisions – yet… Political risks in some parts of the emerging world have escalated in recent weeks, but not to the extent that we are marking down our near-term growth forecasts. 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM stragglers start to pick up speed There has been a sharp turnaround in EM growth in recent months and we expect growth in several major economies, including Brazil and Russia, to surprise on the upside over the next year or so. But... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) & Turkey CPI (Mar.) The sharp rise in Turkish inflation last month supports our view that, while the central bank’s tightening cycle has probably run its course, interest rates will stay very high. In better news, March... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian bond yields set to come down Russia’s bond market hardly moved in reaction to the central bank’s surprise re-start of its easing cycle last week. However, we think the policy rate will ultimately be lowered much further than... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.) March’s Economic Sentiment Indicators suggest that, in aggregate, growth in Central and Eastern Europe slowed a touch this month. However, regional growth over Q1 as a whole still appears to have been... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC looks through rising inflation… for now The press release accompanying the Hungarian MPC’s meeting earlier today remained dovish, but we think the Council is probably underestimating how quickly inflation will rise in the second half of... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update February’s drop in EM inflation mainly a China story EM inflation fell sharply last month but this was driven almost entirely by a New Year-related drop in food inflation in China. This will reverse in March, meaning aggregate EM inflation is likely to... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation jumps, but no rush to tighten The jump in inflation across much of Emerging Europe last month has shifted the focus onto policy tightening. But in most cases this has been a one-off rise from higher fuel inflation, and there is... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will EMs pick up the free-trade mantle? There is growing speculation that the largest EMs might step up to fill the void left by the US in the event of a protectionist shift under President Trump. However, there are good reasons why intra... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Feb.) February’s weak batch of Russian activity data were distorted by working-day effects, and we think the underlying picture is still one of a gradual recovery. 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook A regional rebound The economies of Emerging Europe have made a good start to the year and we expect growth to pick up further in the coming quarters. The recovery in the region’s largest economy, Russia, is likely to... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to expect from Turkey’s constitutional referendum The focus ahead of Turkey’s constitutional referendum, taking place in a month’s time, has been on the political ramifications, but relatively little has been said about the economic impact. Our sense... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) Last month’s PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that in aggregate, the region’s manufacturing sector weakened from January, but it remained strong. The surveys from Central Europe were robust and point... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) In aggregate, February’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were a little weaker than in January, but overall they add to the impression that the region’s economies made a... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Signs of improvement in frontier economies The recent improvement in the global economic backdrop has been mirrored by a pick-up in growth across frontier markets. National accounts data released by early-reporting frontiers over the past... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
