Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Trend still towards looser monetary policy The overall trend in EMs has remained towards looser monetary policy in recent months, with more EM central banks cutting interest rates than hiking them. But significant divergences exist at a... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM markets fall, but economic fallout should be limited Political developments in the US and Brazil have led to sizeable falls in EM currencies and equities today but the economic implications for EMs are likely to be limited. Even in Brazil itself, it’s... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2017) The stronger-than-expected batch of Q1 GDP data from Central and South Eastern Europe means that risks to our above-consensus 2017 growth forecasts now lie to the upside. These figures also raise the... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Rental growth concentrated in a handful of markets Economic performance has typically improved in the last few months, but this has only translated into rental growth in a few locations. Sentiment in Norway and Russia saw notable improvements... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank likely to bring more surprises for markets In a recent Quick Take audio recording (available here), we discussed why the Central Bank of Russia had caught the markets (but not us) off guard at its last two meetings and why interest rates are... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Mind the gap: CEE economies running out of slack One important consequence of the recent period of strong growth in Central and Eastern Europe is that economies are now running at close to full employment. We expect growth to remain robust over the... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM survey data overstating the pace of recovery The EM business and consumer surveys seem to have overstated the strength of the hard EM activity figures over the past year or so. That said, the fall in the EM manufacturing PMI in April provides... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) Last month’s PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that manufacturing in Central Europe remained strong at the start of Q2, but highlight that the recoveries in Russia and Turkey are still fragile. 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Geopolitics trumps local events in frontier financial markets Headlines in the past month have been dominated by local political events in frontier markets. In Venezuela, violent mass protests have swept the country. Meanwhile, the victory of Serbia’s Prime... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian easing cycle has much further to run The Russian central bank’s 50bp interest rate cut to 9.25% today was larger than most (but not us) expected and, taken together with the relatively dovish tone of the statement, supports our view that... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble strength on policymakers’ radars The continued strength of the Russian ruble this month has started to raise concerns among policymakers, with President Putin hinting that some form of action might be taken to stem the rise. At the... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) The rise in the Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe this month suggests that regional growth was probably close to 4% y/y at the start of Q2. These figures support our above... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation remains close to eight-year low EM inflation remained at close to an eight-year low last month, driven in large part by weakening price pressures in the BRIC economies. Inflation has been on the rise in most other EMs, although not... 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Fragile recoveries in Russia and Turkey The latest activity data from Russia and Turkey suggest that both economies lost momentum in Q1. Our GDP Trackers indicate that output in Russia stagnated in annual terms (following an expansion of 0... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central & Eastern Europe: a strong Q1 The latest surveys and monthly activity figures suggest that the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) made a strong start to the year. And Poland appears to have seen one of its fastest... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Politics dominates the headlines but market impact limited The escalation of political risks has dominated the headlines in EMs in recent weeks, but the fallout in financial markets has been surprisingly small. Equities in Russia and South Korea initially... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
