Emerging Markets Economics Update Winners and losers from the latest drop in oil Within the EM world, the main beneficiaries of the recent drop in oil prices are Korea, India, Turkey, and South Africa, while the biggest losers are the Gulf States, Russia and Nigeria. That being... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Steady as she goes The latest economic data from across the emerging world have been mixed but our EM GDP Tracker suggests that growth has levelled off at around 4% y/y. While China’s growth has now passed its peak... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1 2017) The much sharper-than-expected increase in Turkish GDP in Q1, of 5.0% y/y, has prompted us to revise up our GDP growth forecast for the year as a whole to 4.3%. At the margin, today’s figures make it... 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rates to rise further than most expect by end-2018 The press conference that followed today’s MPC meeting in Poland highlighted that some members of the Council are becoming more hawkish. While this supports our view that the policy interest rate will... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s economic recovery levelling off Turkish GDP figures due next week are likely to show that the recovery levelled off in the first quarter at around 3.5% y/y. But there are signs of a healthy rebalancing of the drivers of growth. 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update More to structural EM weakness than investment behaviour Our view that EMs have entered a period of structurally weaker growth has started to become the mainstream, but there is a tendency to misdiagnose this as solely a problem of deficient investment... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Short-term prospects improve, but clouds gathering In the last few months, economic growth prospects have improved across Europe, boding well for rental growth and pointing to sharper falls in property yields in the next 12-18 months. But the improved... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latest Banking Heat Map paints a broadly positive picture Our latest Banking Heat Map paints a broadly positive picture. Banks in Romania and Hungary – which have been among the weakest in Emerging Europe over the past decade – are returning to health, and... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) Last month’s PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that conditions in the manufacturing sectors of the region’s two largest economies – Turkey and Russia – are improving. Moreover, manufacturing in Central... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Low food inflation keeps EM inflation near eight-year low Aggregate EM inflation remained close to an eight-year low in April, largely reflecting a slump in food inflation in major economies such as China and Brazil. While this weakness will soon reverse in... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s recovery to be stronger than consensus expects Despite a gradual shift in the consensus over the past couple of months, we still think that markets are underestimating the extent to which inflation and interest rates in Russia are likely to fall... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) May’s Economic Sentiment Indicators remained strong across Central and Eastern Europe, suggesting that regional growth stayed above 4% y/y in Q2. These figures support our above-consensus growth... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s currencies outperform Currencies in Central Europe have been the best performing in the emerging world over the past month and we think that they should generally fare well in the coming years. 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe: construction rebound driving faster growth A recovery in construction appears to have been the key driver of the marked acceleration in GDP growth across Central Europe in Q1. This rebound is likely to be sustained over the course of 2017... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Introducing our Taylor Rules for Central and Eastern Europe The combination of strong growth and rising inflation in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has shifted attention to when and how policymakers might respond. To help answer this, we’ve created Taylor... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional recovery takes hold First quarter GDP estimates for Emerging Europe published this month beat expectations across the board and suggest that growth in the region as a whole picked up to a three-year high of 2.3% y/y... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
