Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing stabilises at the start of Q2 April’s PMIs suggest that, having slowed in Q1, growth in EM manufacturing steadied at the start of Q2. But the surveys brought further evidence that EM export growth may weaken in the coming months. 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The EU’s next budget and what it means for CEE The EU’s draft budget for 2021-27 released today only provided headline details but, as a rough estimate, we think that annual structural fund inflows for each of the Central and Eastern European (CEE... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs fell in most of Emerging Europe, supporting our view that regional growth has now peaked. The PMI dropped particularly sharply in Turkey, suggesting that a fairly... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of the latest bout of EM currency weakness The recent pressure on EM currencies has prompted a stronger reaction from EM central banks than we have seen for some time. But while we do expect a general shift towards monetary tightening in the... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Public debt fears concentrated in smaller frontiers Public debt positions across the emerging world have come under scrutiny recently and the risks appear to be concentrated in frontier markets. In aggregate, the debt-to-GDP ratio of frontier... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) Our weighted-average of the Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) dipped a little this month, but is still consistent with strong GDP growth. The fall in the ESIs was... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth softens in Q1 Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that growth in the emerging world eased over Q1, which seems to have been driven by weaker activity in EM industry. 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe shrugs off softness in euro-zone The latest data suggest that, while GDP growth in Central Europe has now peaked, it remained strong at 4.5-5.0% y/y in Q1. That came in spite of a raft of softer activity and survey figures from key... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Winners and losers from the latest jump in oil The latest rise in oil prices has eased fiscal concerns in a number of EM oil producers but only at the expense of increased balance of payments concerns in some EM oil consumers, notably Turkey and... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will softer EM inflation trigger interest rate cuts? The recent string of weak inflation data released across EMs has been due largely to a drop in food inflation and, while we think that many central banks will look through this, policymakers in some... 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will the ruble and lira sway next week’s rate decisions? The latest moves in the Russian and Turkish currencies mean interest rate decisions due in both countries next week are on a knife edge. On balance, we think the Turkish central bank will raise its... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Export soft spot adds to evidence EM growth has peaked The export components of the EM business surveys have not deteriorated to the same extent as those in developed markets over the past couple of months, but they nonetheless add to the evidence that... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we worry about the rise in EM public debt? The IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor has put the rise in EM public debt over the past decade back under the spotlight. While debt ratios have increased across most of the emerging world, major... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Currency vulnerabilities building in a few EMs Financial risks remain low in the emerging world. However, since our last Financial Risks Monitor, currency vulnerabilities have increased in a handful of countries. 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) Our Tracker shows that aggregate capital flows to EMs have been resilient over the past few months in the face of fears of a protectionist shift in the US and sell-offs in equity markets. Concerns... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor US-China trade tensions: the supply chain impact on EMs The US tariffs on China announced last week will, if implemented, have knock on effects on other EMs though supply chains, particularly in parts of East Asia and in Chile. The impact of the measures... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
