Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s hawkish shift, Turkey goes to the polls The more hawkish communications from Hungary’s MPC this week support our long-held view that ultra-loose monetary policy will be reined in this year. The hawkish shift caused market expectations for... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s elections: what’s at stake? This weekend’s elections in Turkey, which will mark a shift to a presidential political system, have put markets on edge amid fears of a further tilt towards unorthodox policy under a (strengthened)... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank to slow (but not end) easing cycle Govenor Nabiullina’s hawkish comments at today’s post-meeting press conference are likely to reinforce views in the markets that the central bank’s easing cycle is at an end. For our part, we think... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth already starting to slow The recent rise in global trade tensions comes at a time when EM export growth has already started to slow. Higher oil prices will provide a boost to export growth in value terms in the next few... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe: Net trade increasingly dragging on growth GDP breakdowns for the economies of Central Europe showed that, while domestic demand remained strong in Q1, net trade dragged on growth across the region. With capacity constraints starting to bite... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) & Czech GDP (Q1) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs fell in most of Emerging Europe, reinforcing our view that regional growth has peaked. The PMI plunged to a nine-year low in Turkey, which is the first sign that the... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for the Turkish lira? Last week’s emergency rate hike by Turkey’s central bank has caused a rebound in the lira and past experience suggests that the rally may have a bit further to run over the coming weeks. But there are... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How could Italy’s problems affect Emerging Europe? Recent developments in Italy do not pose an immediate threat to economies in Emerging Europe but a significant escalation in the crisis would cause problems for countries in the region, particularly... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) At a regional level, May’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were a bit stronger than in April, but the latest readings still support our view that GDP growth in CEE... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Relief for the Turkish lira proves fleeting Turkey has been in the grips of a currency crisis which forced the central bank to hike interest rates by 300bp on 23rd May, but that only provided brief respite for the lira. For now, there are signs... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why there’s less to the EM sell-off than meets the eye Warnings that the market turmoil in EMs over the past few weeks could presage a spate of crises similar to the late 1990s look overdone. A more sober assessment reveals three key points. 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: Why hasn’t rapid wage growth pushed up inflation? Rapid wage growth in Central Europe has yet to feed into a meaningful pick-up in inflation. Part of the softness of Central European inflation reflects weak price pressures in the euro-zone. But it... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to expect from the Q1 GDP figures The batch of preliminary Q1 GDP figures for Emerging Europe due next week should confirm that, while regional growth peaked last year, it remained relatively strong at the start of 2018. The pace of... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Putting the EM sell-off in context EM financial markets have steadied today, but the moves over the past few weeks have been relatively large compared with the other Fed-related sell-offs over the past 18 months. That said, this sell... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May) Capital flows to emerging markets have slowed in recent weeks. But for all the talk of a broad-based selloff in EM assets and a pull-back by foreign investors, there’s little evidence so far to... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook A regional slowdown The past few months have brought early signs that growth has peaked in parts of Emerging Europe, and we expect the pace of expansion to ease in most countries over the course of this year and 2019. In... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
