Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation on the turn EM inflation dropped to an eight-year low in the middle of this year, but it has now started to rise. The recent increase in oil prices will have pushed it higher this month. And a combination of... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Learning the lessons from Fed-related sell-offs Periodic bouts of investor concern over Fed policy tightening appear to be having less and less effect on financial markets in EMs. That being said, the one consistent theme that emerges from our... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2017) Third quarter GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) showed that growth in the region as a whole picked up to a nine-year high of 5.3% y/y. We still think growth will slow in 2018, but today’s... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does the latest spike in oil prices mean for EMs? The jump in oil prices over the past couple of weeks doesn’t radically alter the outlook for EMs. However, if sustained, it could exacerbate concerns we already have about some parts of the emerging... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) Our tracker suggests that EM capital outflows picked up to a nine month high in October. Even so, they remained weak by the standard of recent years. 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How will the region’s Q3 GDP data look? The batch of preliminary Q3 GDP figures due next week in Emerging Europe are likely to show that growth accelerated in most of the region. While the pace of expansion probably softened a touch in... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Oct.) The rise in Czech inflation to a five-year high of 2.9% y/y in October was driven entirely by a sharp pick-up in food inflation, and by our estimates, core inflation eased a little. As a result, while... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s MPC taking a hawkish turn The Polish MPC left interest rates unchanged today, but the post-meeting press release seems to confirm that the Council is becoming more hawkish. We think inflation will rise above target in the... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s external vulnerabilities building Romania’s widening current account deficit is not quite as alarming as the headline figure would suggest, but rapid import growth has still increased the country’s dependence on capital inflows. With... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Oct.) The jump in Turkish inflation last month, to 11.9% y/y, was worryingly broad based. There are reasons to think that inflation will begin to fall significantly from December, but in the near-term... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Powell nomination won't have big impact on EMs The nomination of Jerome Powell to be the next chair of the Fed doesn’t have significant implications for EMs. We think that the economic recovery is close to peaking in several emerging economies and... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next move in Czech tightening cycle unlikely until next year The statement accompanying the Czech MPC’s meeting – at which it resumed its tightening cycle via a 25bp hike to the policy rate – was more dovish than we had anticipated. Accordingly, we think that... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing growth eases in October Our estimate of the aggregate Emerging Market manufacturing PMI suggests that manufacturing activity weakened at the start of the Q4. This slowdown appears to be broad-based across EM regions. 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A fresh look at Central Europe’s populist shift The victory of the ANO party in the recent Czech election has put the spotlight back onto the rise of populism in Central Europe. In this Update, we take a closer look at the political and economic... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) October’s manufacturing PMI for Turkey – which fell to a six-month low – supports our view that following an impressive Q3, growth will slow in Q4. Elsewhere in the region, the Czech PMI painted a... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth at multi-year high in August Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM growth picked up to its fastest pace in four-and-a-half years in August. However, there are some early signs that EM growth will ease over the coming months. 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
