Europe Commercial Property Update Emerging European yields can buck the trend in 2019 With property yields in emerging Europe sitting above their pre-crisis lows and those in central Europe looking relatively well-placed on our valuation measure, we think that yields in the region can... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Structural changes favour the industrial sector Rates of rental and capital value growth are set to slow in Scandinavia and Switzerland, but Copenhagen industrial property still looks attractive. Total returns will be higher in Emerging Europe... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks hint at rate hikes, Turkish GDP figures Central banks in both Russia and Turkey created a stir this week by raising the prospect of rate hikes, but we think that the degree of tightening in Turkey will disappoint markets and policymakers in... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish inflation to soar, Ukraine on the rocks Turkish CPI figures due on Monday are likely to show that inflation rose to its highest level since 2003, but government pressure means that this is unlikely to prompt the central bank to hike... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) Our weighted-average of the Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) fell in August, adding to the evidence that GDP growth across the region has continued to weaken. 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier recovery remains on track Frontier financial markets have endured a torrid 2018, but this hasn’t been accompanied by a deterioration in the hard activity data. Admittedly, growth in the largest frontier economy, Nigeria... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM corporate credit spreads have a lot further to rise Despite rising since January, emerging market (EM) corporate credit spreads remain very tight by past standards and relative to those of their counterparts elsewhere in the world. We think that this... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turkey in crisis Turkey plunged into a full-blown currency crisis this month following the imposition of US sanctions and an absence of (or refusal to pursue) an orthodox policy response. Inflation, which was already... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Turkey’s crisis just one of many threats to EM assets The main factor weighing on EM assets recently has been worries about contagion from the crisis in Turkey. But even if these fears subside, there are plenty of other reasons to be pessimistic about... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira rebounds, Putin policy wobbles The Turkish lira has recovered lost ground since Monday, although policymakers have only done the bare minimum in response to the crisis. There have been some positive noises on fiscal policy, yet... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What happens after an EM currency crisis? Both Turkey and Argentina have now suffered currency crises this year. In previous EM currency crises, economies experienced a sharp slowdown in GDP growth, averaging 5-6%-pts, and a rise in inflation... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey: what next? The plunge in the Turkish lira is likely to push inflation above 20% and tip the economy into recession in the coming months. Our base case is that GDP growth will now average 3.0% over 2018 as a... 15th August 2018 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2) GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe showed that regional growth slowed for a third consecutive quarter in Q2. We expect that this slowdown will continue over the rest of 2018 and 2019. 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey on the brink Turkey seems to have been on the brink of a crisis several times this decade, only for the central bank to do just enough to steady the ship. But there are reasons to think that emergency interest... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE slowdown continues GDP data out next week will probably show that GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe slowed for a third straight quarter in Q2. We think that the slowdown will continue over the rest of 2018 and... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor EM corporate credit spreads appear unsustainably low Aside from a brief drop in July, emerging market (EM) credit spreads have generally been rising in recent months and are well above their January troughs. Nonetheless, corporate credit spreads in... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
