Emerging Markets Economics Update A guide to elections in 2018 In this note we publish a guide to elections that are scheduled across the emerging world in 2018. The calendar is busier than it was in 2017 but, whereas elections this year boosted the prospects for... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC press conference masks hawkish shift The surprisingly dovish tone taken by Governor Glapinski in the press conference accompanying today’s MPC meeting belies the hawkish shift in sentiment across the Council as a whole. In spite of the... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Nov.) The decline in Russian inflation to just 2.5% y/y last month means the central bank is now all but certain to continue its easing cycle next week. We expect a 25bp cut to 8.00%. Inflation has probably... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rapid Czech wage growth to prompt more rate hikes The continued strong run of Czech wage data has been driven by a tightening of labour market conditions. With labour shortages continuing to mount, wage growth is set to remain rapid over the coming... 4th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Nov.) The jump in Turkish inflation to a fourteen-year high of 13.0% y/y in November, from 11.9% y/y in October, will undoubtedly alarm policymakers at the central bank. With the government seemingly... 4th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing growth on the rise in Q4 The latest Markit PMI surveys suggest EM manufacturing growth has gained momentum across the emerging world and looks set to end the year on a positive note. 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Do smaller, second cities now offer better value? With some of the tightest office markets, core European cities are set to see the best rates of rental growth over the 2018-21 period. However, with lower current yields and a weaker outlook for... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that GDP growth has remained strong in Central Europe in Q4, probably at around 4.5-5.0% y/y. The pick-up in Russia’s PMI was also encouraging in light of the... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus An anatomy of Turkey’s credit boom In this Focus, we highlight the scale of Turkey’s credit boom and warn that the build-up of vulnerabilities in the banking sector is more of a concern than most acknowledge. 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth ends Q3 on a high Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM growth picked up to its fastest pace in just over five years in September. However, more timely data from early reporting countries suggests that growth has... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) November’s Economic Sentiment Indicators suggest that the pace of economic growth has remained strong in the major economies of Central and Eastern Europe in Q4. The surveys are consistent with growth... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Debunking three myths about EM credit The risks around EM credit expansion are, in our view, commonly misunderstood. In particular, threemyths appear to have developed in commentary around the subject. 28th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Strong growth in CEE starts to raise eyebrows Recently-released figures showed that GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) picked up to a post-financial crisis high of 5.3% y/y in Q3. Growth strengthened in most countries in the region –... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack More to EM rebound than trade The latest data continue to show a broad acceleration in GDP growth across most of the emerging world. A common thread has been a pick-up in exports, with volumes growth now up on the start of the... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s National Bank missing the bigger picture The Hungarian MPC left both its three-month and overnight deposit rates on hold today but the Council announced unconventional measures to ease policy, including interest rate swaps and a mortgage... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank struggles to curtail lira’s slide The drop in the Turkish lira over the past month has already prompted the central bank (CBRT) to nudge up the average cost of the funding it provides to commercial banks and to begin auctioning non... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
