Emerging Europe Economics Focus Putin 4.0: The Great Stagnation The outcome of Russia’s presidential election next month is not in doubt, although it’s still unclear what direction economic policy will take during President Putin’s fourth (and probably final) term... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) February’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that growth in the region as a whole may strengthen to more than 5.5% y/y in Q1. The Hungarian and Polish... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Further slowdown of EM GDP growth Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth softened at the end of last year and early indicators point to further weakness at the start of 2018. 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s unconventional easing fails to convince markets Long-term bond yields in Hungary have risen further this year than those of the country’s peers, despite the central bank’s efforts to bring them down. It seems that markets are coming around to our... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Firing on all cylinders The data from Emerging Europe at the start of 2018 have painted a bright picture. Our weighted average of the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.) Our Capital Flows Tracker suggests that net flows to EMs turned positive in January for the first time since April last year, but subsequent market moves suggest that we are likely to have seen a... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Why the EM growth cycle is close to peaking The consensus on growth in Emerging Markets (EMs) remains too rosy; by contrast we think that the current cycle is now close to peaking. While we do not expect EM growth to collapse, we do think it... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US inflation not (yet) a big threat to EM economies Concerns about rising inflation pressures in the US have sent shockwaves through EM financial markets over the past week or so, but the economic fallout is likely to be limited. A sharp and sustained... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Surveys point to strong EM export growth in early-2018 Survey-based measures of manufacturers’ export expectations suggest that EM export volume growth is set to strengthen over the coming months. Growth in both EM export volumes and values will, however... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2017) GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) showed that growth in the region as a whole expanded by 4.9% y/y in Q4. While this is still very strong by recent standards, it’s weaker than Q3’s outturn... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE Q4 GDP data to confirm strong finish to 2017 The raft of Q4 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) due later this week is likely to show that the region’s economies continued to grow at a rapid pace at the end of 2017, at around 5.3% y/y... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Picking apart the global equity sell-off The further falls in global equities over the past 24 hours have not left EMs unscathed, but in general EMstocks have held up better than DM stocks and there’s little evidence that falls in equities... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank opens door to more cuts over 2018 The Russian central bank’s 25bp cut in its policy interest rate (to 7.50%) today was smaller than we had anticipated, but the decision was accompanied by a very dovish statement that paves the way for... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor EM credit spreads likely to rise further EM credit spreads remain very tight by historical standards, despite picking up a bit in the wake of the chaos in global equity markets in the past few days. However, their current low levels do not... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jan.) The decline in Russian inflation to just 2.2% y/y last month, coming alongside weakness in the latest hard activity data and dovish comments from central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina, means we now... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: fiscal plans point to diverging growth prospects The widening of budget deficits in Hungary and Romania means that the loose fiscal policy pursued in recent years is set to come to an end in 2018. Growth is likely to slow (sharply in the case of... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
