Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian GDP controversy, CEE slowdown The much stronger-than-expected Russian GDP growth figure for 2018, released this week, led to accusations that Rosstat is manipulating the figures, but we think that these data actually paint a... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Scope for some EM rate cuts even if risk premia rise We expect EM risk premia to rise this year as global growth slows, something which has often been associated with EM central banks raising interest rates. But big currency falls and surges in... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rally in EM local currency bonds likely to fizzle out This week’s flurry of EM central bank meetings will probably add to the signs that the shift towards tighter monetary policy in much of the emerging world is nearing an end. Even so, we doubt that the... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan.) The slight rise in Turkish inflation in January was driven by higher food inflation but even so, coupled with the hawkish tone of the central bank’s latest Inflation Report, it probably means that... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing stumbles at the start of 2019 The sharp fall in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI last month is consistent with a slowdown in industrial production growth to 2% y/y, from around 4% in 2018. This may be an early sign that EM... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s budget surplus, CBRT more hawkish The budget surplus recorded in Russia in 2018 has put the spotlight on austerity measures, but it actually looks like fiscal policy will provide more support to the economy this year than it did in... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) Another soft batch of PMI data from Central Europe suggests that the continued weakness of euro-zone industry is weighing heavily on the region’s export-led manufacturing sectors. On past form, the... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Further evidence of a Q4 slowdown Data released over the past month suggest that regional GDP growth slowed from to 2.4% y/y in Q3 to a two-year low of 1.2% y/y in Q4. This was due mostly to the economic slump in Turkey, where... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) A weak batch of ESIs for January supports our view that the economies of Central and Eastern Europe will slow by more than more expect over the course of 2019. 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth slowing, rates rising GDP growth across Emerging Europe is likely to slow in 2019, and by more than most anticipate. Turkey’s economy will continue to suffer from the effects of last year’s lira crisis, while the slowdown... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Slump in Asian industry drags down EM growth Aggregate EM growth slowed to its weakest pace in two years in the middle of Q4, and more timely data point to further weakness. We expect the slowdown to continue over the course of this year. 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM export weakness to continue in 2019 EM export growth slowed sharply in November and the early signs are that the December figures will be even worse. Some of this was due to falls in commodity prices. But much of the weakness appears to... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Revisiting EM debt risks The slowdown in the global economy has raised fresh concerns about rising EM debt levels. The risks posed by China’s credit boom are now well known, although mitigated by the nature of the lending... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Regional slowdown worsens, nervous MPCs A raft of weak activity and survey data released this week reinforces our relatively downbeat view on the outlook for growth across Emerging Europe this year. Slowing growth seems to be worrying some... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Has EM exposure to a China slowdown fallen? A number of EMs, particularly in Asia, look vulnerable to the impact of a China slowdown – and are just as exposed as they were when fears of a China ‘hard landing’ flared up in 2015. While we wouldn... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Outlook is not bright for euro-zone peripheral bonds We think that government bonds in the euro-zone “periphery” will fare quite poorly in the next two years – particularly in Italy and Greece – as growth disappoints and deficits overshoot expectations... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
