Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of the surge in EM FX bond sales? The rise in EM sovereign foreign currency bond sales this year has been concentrated in larger EMs with relatively strong balance sheets. We are more concerned about heavy foreign currency public debt... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will emerging markets outperform in the long-run? The broad tailwinds that lifted growth across the emerging world over the past two decades won’t be repeated and, as a result, GDP growth will be around two percentage points weaker over the next... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Narrowing EM external deficits reduce currency risks Current account deficits have started to narrow in many major EMs, most notably Turkey and Argentina, reducing the risk of large currency sell-offs. That said, there are a few countries, such as... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4) The Turkish economy formally entered into recession in the final quarter of last year and, while the worst of the downturn may now have passed, the weak carryover means that we expect GDP to decline... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Feb.) Our Tracker suggests that overall EM capital outflows eased in February, mirroring the broader improvement in investor sentiment towards the emerging world. But more timely data indicate that this was... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish lira stumbles, Russian and CEE rates The Turkish lira has been one of the worst-performing EM currencies this week which, in part at least, seems to reflect investors no longer buying the central bank’s hawkish rhetoric. Elsewhere... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Will emerging markets outperform in the long-run? The broad tailwinds that lifted growth across the emerging world over the past two decades won’t be repeated and, as a result, GDP growth will be around 2%-pts weaker over the next 20 years. Income... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM inflation at post-financial crisis low EM inflation slowed to its weakest pace since the Global Financial Crisis in January and it will remain lower over the course of the year in most countries. This is likely to prompt policymakers to... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) The weaker-than-expected Turkey inflation data for February are unlikely to be enough to persuade the central bank to lower interest rates at its monetary policy meeting later this week. We expect the... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Upturn in EM manufacturing won’t be sustained The EM manufacturing PMI picked up last month, but we think that growth in the manufacturing sector will still slow in the coming months. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central European exports, PMI weakness & Polish stimulus The breakdown of the Central European Q4 GDP figures released this week showed that the surprisingly strong growth rates were driven by a rebound in exports, which appears to be related to a one-off... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap External pressures keep frontiers in tightening mode The monetary tightening cycles that began last year in many of the large EMs are petering out fairly quickly. But in many of the smaller Frontier markets, interest rate hikes are still at the top of... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we worry about EM central bank independence? The lesson from Turkey over the last few years is that it takes time for political pressure on the central bank to have negative macroeconomic consequences. With this in mind, while recent... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) February’s strong batch of ESIs suggest that resilient domestic demand is helping the economies of Central and Eastern Europe to cope with economic weakness in Germany. 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Fiscal stimulus on its way Developments this month suggest that governments in parts of the region are embarking on fiscal stimulus to boost growth and prop up popular support. Recent policy announcements in Russia and Turkey... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Growth soft at the start of 2019 The Q4 EM GDP data released so far have generally been a bit stronger than might have been expected, in light of concerns about the health of the global economy. But more timely data suggest that... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
