Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth starting to lose momentum Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM growth was stronger over Q2 as a whole than it was in Q1, but there are early signs that momentum faded towards the end of the quarter. 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jul.) Our weighted-average of the Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) dipped a little this month, but it still suggests that GDP growth across the region held up well at the... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin wavers on pension reform, Turkish sanctions Signs this week that Russian President Vladimir Putin now opposes a planned rise in the retirement age suggest that the one significant policy reform announced in the country in the past three years... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional growth set to slow further We expect GDP growth across Emerging Europe to slow by more than most expect over 2019-20 and monetary policy is set to be tightened further than is priced into markets. The important exception to... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Region fares well in Q2, Turkey to hike rates next week Activity data released in Russia, Turkey and Poland suggest that regional GDP growth remained strong at around 4% y/y in Q2. Among a number of monetary policy decisions due next week, we expect Turkey... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Erdogan talks, markets tumble Turkish President Erdogan’s decisions this week to exclude investor-friendly members from his new cabinet and renew his calls for lower interest rates have rattled local financial markets and... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EC to punish Poland, Turkish inflation surges The infringement procedure launched this week by the European Commission against Poland – in response to controversial legal reforms and the associated worries about the erosion of judicial... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs made for disappointing reading in most of Emerging Europe. After plunging to a nine-year low in May, the Turkish survey remained weak in June, suggesting that the... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Erdogan wins in Turkey, forint hits record low Victories for President Erdogan and the AKP in Turkish elections last weekend have supported a rally in local markets over the course of this week but this has overshadowed the latest survey data... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Hawkish shift across the region Central banks across Emerging Europe have become increasingly hawkish in the past few weeks, supporting our view that policy in the region will (in most places) be tighter than most expect over the... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.) At a regional level, Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were weaker in Q2 than in Q1, supporting our view that regional GDP growth peaked in Q3 2017. 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How will the ECB affect CEE? The ECB’s ‘tapering’ of its asset purchases later this year and probable rate hikes in 2019 are unlikely to have much economic or financial market impact in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). But, at... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s hawkish shift, Turkey goes to the polls The more hawkish communications from Hungary’s MPC this week support our long-held view that ultra-loose monetary policy will be reined in this year. The hawkish shift caused market expectations for... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s elections: what’s at stake? This weekend’s elections in Turkey, which will mark a shift to a presidential political system, have put markets on edge amid fears of a further tilt towards unorthodox policy under a (strengthened)... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank to slow (but not end) easing cycle Govenor Nabiullina’s hawkish comments at today’s post-meeting press conference are likely to reinforce views in the markets that the central bank’s easing cycle is at an end. For our part, we think... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth already starting to slow The recent rise in global trade tensions comes at a time when EM export growth has already started to slow. Higher oil prices will provide a boost to export growth in value terms in the next few... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
